Households could face into next winter without once-off payments like electricity credits as the Government considers reining in the use of such interventions for the first time in years.
Four senior Coalition sources said such payments, which have been a feature of every budget since 2022, are seen as unlikely to be repeated.
Along with once-off measures for social welfare recipients and families with children, the universal electricity credits have been the most visible example of the previous government rolling out significant interventions to shield households and businesses from the effects of the cost-of-living crisis.
The payments, which have been strongly criticised by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, were repeated last year in advance of the general election despite concerns — even within government — at the scale of their use.
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One senior source indicated that once-off payments are unlikely, with a focus on regularising the budgetary process within a new medium-term fiscal framework, which will be submitted to the European Commission in the coming months.
The source emphasised that it was “year one of a new Government”, signalling a desire to normalise matters. The incoming Government has already agreed not to push ahead with mini-budgets, despite an initial push from Fine Gael to move ahead with a raft of measures to support businesses early in the cycle.
Another senior figure said “we can’t keep doing once-offs”.
While critics say the payments risk causing further inflation, the prospect of proceeding without them may spark an Opposition and consumer backlash if the cost-of-living pressure has not abated by budget time.
Government sources indicated that substantial discussions on the next budget have not yet begun and no final decisions have been taken. They said the policies proposed by the two large parties during the election, and included in the programme for government, would likely mean the budget would be significant this year.
A medium-term fiscal framework was submitted to Europe last year by the previous government, but an incoming administration has a window to make changes after it is elected. It is expected the new version will be submitted along with the summer economic statement, although it could come sooner.
Some within the Coalition view it as a chance to restore discipline to State spending after years of extraordinary expenditure during the Covid-19 pandemic and the inflation crisis, but say there are contrary concerns that it could prove to be “too restrictive”.
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