Politics

Fraught few days for Martin and Harris as they mull over Cabinet picks

Fianna Fáil leader has seven Cabinet jobs and the chief whip’s post to give out but he has up to a dozen realistic contenders so many are going to be disappointed

Micheál Martin: all we know for certain thus far is the Fianna Fáil leader is due to be elected taoiseach and his Fine Gael counterpart will become tánaiste. Photograph: Photograph: Nicolas Tucat/AFP/Getty Images
Micheál Martin: all we know for certain thus far is the Fianna Fáil leader is due to be elected taoiseach and his Fine Gael counterpart will become tánaiste. Photograph: Photograph: Nicolas Tucat/AFP/Getty Images
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Sat Jan 18 2025 - 06:00

If you were to become taoiseach, you might expect it would be the greatest day of your life.

You would soon find it is also one of the most awkward and uncomfortable – as you face the perennial problem of everyone who is elected to the State’s highest political office: too many applicants, not enough jobs.

Talk to any former taoiseach and they’ll say it’s the one part of the job that they all hated. Inevitably, more people are disappointed than are satisfied. And as one veteran of the process observed, the people who are promoted to Cabinet all think it’s because their talents have made them an obvious choice, while those who miss out invariably believe that they have been unfairly shafted. Some of them immediately begin plotting revenge.

So it will be a fraught few days, both for those hoping to be part of the next Cabinet, and for Micheál Martin and Simon Harris, who must make the decisions to be announced next Wednesday.

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Reshuffles and Cabinet selections often go off the rails, with last-minute lobbying or refusals to take certain jobs throwing the procedure into confusion; sometimes intended lists of appointments are revised at the very last minute. From a political point of view, Cabinet selections more often turn into problems than triumphs. “Universal acclaim as Cabinet is announced” is rarely a story, whereas “Unhappiness at Cabinet selection” very often is.

What do we know?

Nothing for sure at this point, beyond the fact the Fianna Fáil leader is due to be elected taoiseach and his Fine Gael counterpart will become tánaiste.

Harris is very likely to go to the Department of Foreign Affairs, a move insiders say was signalled by the agreement to transfer the trade portfolio to Iveagh House.

Within the apparatus of Government, there is far from universal support for the move, with some sources pointing out, somewhat mischievously, that this was precisely the move insisted on by Eamon Gilmore when Labour joined Fine Gael in government in 2011. That did not end well for either Labour or Gilmore.

With Fianna Fáil in the taoiseach’s office, Fine Gael will take the Department of Finance, and this will almost certainly go to Paschal Donohoe. And with Fine Gael in the Department of Finance, the Department of Public Expenditure will go to Fianna Fáil, with Jack Chambers pretty much a cert for the role. Donohoe and Chambers form an important axis between the two parties across the two budget ministries.

After that, Fianna Fáil is expected to retain the Department of Housing, where Darragh O’Brien is likely – though not certain – to stay.

After that the speculation gets windier. It’s agreed between the parties that Fianna Fáil will get the Department of Justice but there’s no obvious front-runner for the job.

Junior justice minister James Browne impressed Martin no end, but backbencher Jim O’Callaghan could also be promoted. He turned down a junior minister’s job in 2020, much to his leader’s chagrin and a period of froideur between them ensued. That seems to have ended; O’Callaghan was prominent in the media during the election campaign and Martin campaigned in his constituency on a number of occasions. One Fianna Fáiler adds that appointing O’Callaghan would suggest that Martin wants a competition to succeed him.

One sticking point could be O’Callaghan’s opposition to elements of the Defamation Bill introduced last year by the Government – and recommitted to in the programme for government.

Agriculture and Education are due to switch to Fine Gael, with Martin Hayden and Hidlegarde Naughten, or perhaps Patrick O’Donovan said to be in the running. Helen McEntee is expected move to the Department of Enterprise, though Peter Burke is likely to stay in Cabinet.

There is a universal expectation that Jennifer Carroll-MacNeill could be promoted to the Department of Health, though it’s not clear if this is based on anything more than the Leinster House rumour mill.

Fianna Fáil will get the Department of Social Protection and the Department of Rural Affairs – a possible fit for Norma Foley, though one of a trio of west coast TDs – Timmy Dooley, Dara Calleary and Niall Collins – could also feature. Junior health minister Mary Butler is also widely tipped for promotion.

Charlie McConalogue’s Cabinet place is said to be under threat, though dropping him would be a harsh move. Junior ministers James Lawless and Thomas Byrne have claims for promotion. Niamh Smyth was an able chair of the arts and culture committee and her gender helps.

But there isn’t room for everyone. No matter how he tries to squeeze everyone in, Martin has seven Cabinet jobs and the chief whip’s post to give out. He has about a dozen contenders. Lots of people are going to be disappointed.