In the US presidential election cycle there is a phenomenon called the October Surprise, an event that nobody expects that can shape the outcome of the contest.
Simon Harris’s encounter with Charlotte Fallon might have been our version of that - only that the direction of travel for Fine Gael was already downward, and sharply so, as The Irish Times poll from yesterday showed.
For now it's not possible to measure if Harris arrested the decline yesterday when saying he should not be judged solely on “40 seconds” of tetchiness and indifference.
There is a path back. The outgoing government combination of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is the most popular choice among voters, according to the latest findings from The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll. A total of 43 per cent of those polled would like to see a coalition government involving the two parties. In the context of our more complicated political choreography, that is commanding. In contrast, 21 per cent favour a government led by Sinn Féin without its two main rival parties, and a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin combination is favoured only by 8 per cent. “You take your wins where you can get them,” writes political editor Pat Leahy in his analysis on the findings.
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Tonight’s Debate becomes Critical
Saying tonight’s debate on RTÉ is going to be decisive is stating the obvious. But the debate will indeed be decisive for Simon Harris in particular.
The other two big parties are now in advance of his party in terms of momentum, and he has to claw that lost support back.
The Prime Time debate will be hosted by Miriam O’Callaghan and Sarah McInerney and both will be prepped to Leaving Cert levels of details. The two-hander format has worked well and there will be little forgiveness for any misstep or mistake.
Harris is probably the most natural debater of the three but will have a very tough balancing act to perform. He will have to defend his corner and score points over his opponents without seeming arrogant or uncaring or snippy. Expect to hear a lot of phrases like “respectfully” or “I say this with the greatest of respect for my opponents” peppering his language.
And as for the other two - Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald can very much place herself as the alternative and we can expect to hear that grating cliche “Tweedledum and Tweedledee” uttered at some stage of the programme.
She is assertive and confident but is not comfortable with very specific detail, in sharp contrast to her opponents. There are a few Achilles’ heels: Sinn Féin’s recent scandals and its populist suggestion to subject RTÉ’s coverage of Gaza to an inquiry.
Micheál Martin also has to be careful. Is there momentum behind his party, or is it going to Sinn Féin? He was overshadowed and outplayed totally by McDonald in the first debate five years ago and can’t let that happen again. He too can display moments of tetchiness and if he is not careful might find it hard to hold his own against two skilled debaters.
Will there be a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael tag team? That’s in no way certain. Fine Gael is fighting for survival and its battle is against Fianna Fáil as much as it is with Sinn Féin. Could we see Fine Gael against the other two at times? It’s fascinating and it’s exciting.
It won’t get many voters to perform a U-turn but, if a leader is convincing, will probably harden up soft leanings towards a political party into firm views.
Playbook
The three leaders will spend their afternoons prepping for the debate.
In the morning, Mary Lou McDonald will visit a recycling centre accompanied by Dublin South Central candidates Aengus Ó Snodaigh, Máire Devine and Daithí Doolan. Later, Pearse Doherty, Eoin Ó Broin and Louise O’Reilly will set out packages for reductions in the long-term cost of living.
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman will set out the party’s central goals for climate policy with Pippa Hackett and Marc Ó Cathasaigh. Labour’s transport spokesman Duncan Smith and Fingal West candidate Rob O’Donoghue will be in Swords to set out plans to decarbonise the transport system.
For Fianna Fáil, Jack Chambers and Dublin Central candidate Mary Fitzpatrick will set out plans on cost-of-living measures and also proposals to protect the economy from external shocks.
The SocDems will also be outlining cost-of-living measures with Gary Gannon, the other Eoin Ó Broin (Dublin Mid-West), and Sinéad Gibney (Dublin Rathdown).
For Fine Gael, Paschal Donohoe and Peter Burke will be in Leopardstown to underline their policies on the importance of economic stability to attract FDI and drive future economic growth.
Best Reads
A constituency-focused piece looking at the contrast in reception to Sinn Féin on the doorsteps in November 2024 compared with the local elections in June this year, and also the general election of 2020.
Matt O’Toole on why it’s desirable for parties to take a positive stance on unity.
Jade Wilson and Conor Pope have been talking to first-time buyers.
Jennifer Bray assesses the impact Simon Harris’s encounter with Charlotte Fallon has had on morale within Fine Gael.
Jack Horgan-Jones reports that People Before Profit has plans for a State construction company that could build 35,000 homes a year within a few years.
Newspaper Headlines
Irish Independent: Its main lead is a reiteration from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin that he will not go into government with Sinn Féin
Irish Daily Mail: A report inquiring if any member of Fine Gael contacted RTÉ to prevent broadcast of the controversial footage involving Simon Harris and Charlotte Fallon.
The Sun leads with a report on the gaffes that have affected Simon Harris and Fine Gael during the campaign.
Election Daily: a new hope for Sinn Féin as Fine Gael tries to stop the rot
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