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Immigration set to be crunch topic in the next general election as Sinn Féin revises policy

Many parties have broadly similar policies - and none of their measures will magic away an issue leading to heightened tensions in communities

Gardaí on duty at the GPO in Dublin during a protest in February by anti-immigration activists and a counter-protest by pro-immigration activists. Photograph: Gareth Chaney/Collins
Gardaí on duty at the GPO in Dublin during a protest in February by anti-immigration activists and a counter-protest by pro-immigration activists. Photograph: Gareth Chaney/Collins
Jennifer Bray's picture
Jennifer Bray
Sat Jul 27 2024 - 06:00

October, November, next February – no matter when the forthcoming general election falls, this coming Dáil term will be the last full term of the current Government.

Over the last four years there has been a global pandemic that shuttered the world, an ensuing spike in inflation that led to a cost-of-living crisis and, in domestic politics, a historic rotation of the office of Taoiseach. That’s not to mention the unexpected resignation of a taoiseach and another Coalition party leader, a few TDs stepping out of politics and a finance minister leaving for Europe months before the last budget.

There was a failed referendum, a surprising set of local and European elections and many confidence motions tabled by the Opposition. Another major global event that has created unforeseen long-term consequences is Russia’s invasion and war on Ukraine. The war displaced millions at a time of already heightened worldwide geopolitical tensions.

The topic of immigration has undoubtedly become a major domestic political issue as the Government struggles to find accommodation for both refugees and asylum seekers against the backdrop of an unrelenting housing crisis.

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To put the figures in context, the total number of applicants for international protection (IP) in 2022 and 2023 – 26,900 – was greater than the total received over the entire eight years before that. And from January until the end of this June, there were 10,604 such applications. That’s a 93.9 per cent increase on the same period in 2023.

If the trend continues, the number of IP arrivals into Ireland this year is likely to surpass 20,000, which would be a new record.

What do the statistics tell us? They show that the level of demand on the system and on infrastructure remains acute, which means that heightened tensions in communities will more than likely continue and immigration will remain a front-and-centre issue in the next election, whether it takes place later this year or early next.

Sinn Féin this week launched a new set of immigration policies which appear to be aimed at reclaiming some support lost in working-class communities and other under-pressure localities where asylum seekers have been housed. The decision to publish the eight-page document so soon after a disappointing local election in early June shows that immigration is not just an issue that is worrying the Government – it is preoccupying the minds of Opposition parties too.

Sinn Féin is proposing that a pre-assessment be carried out examining the constraints within a community before any asylum seekers are housed there. They say that disadvantaged areas should not be asked to accommodate new arrivals and that better-off areas should shoulder more responsibility.

The main Opposition party also proposes accelerating processing times for applications and says that certain areas of a country could be declared safe in order to accelerate considerations further.

What’s behind the shift in tone, and will it work?

“Sinn Féin have had six weeks to take stock of their very poor European and local election results and it seems clear to me that it has decided that an inconsistent message on immigration harmed it in its core working-class areas,” says Gary Murphy, professor of politics at Dublin City University.

“This would seem to be the only logical conclusion to draw from its proposal to audit all communities and gain local input on facilities before deciding where to house asylum seekers.”

Murphy says that in stating that middle-class or better-off areas need to take a greater share of asylum seekers than before, the party is making a calculation that it needs to ensure it retains its 2020 vote – the biggest share of any party, at 24.5 per cent – and is prioritising this over any attempted gains in middle-class areas.

“I suspect it’s about saying to the electorate that we’re not the same as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who don’t care about you, and we do,” he said.

“The problem arises when they have to publish these audits and explain why one area was picked over another but they’ll be hoping to be in government by then and, of course, being in a coalition government means almost any policy can be modified.”

Other Opposition parties have also given this subject some thought.

The Labour Party has compiled a detailed immigration position document. They want to see a new stand-alone agency for integration, migration and asylum. Theoretically, under this body, the processing of most applications wouldn’t take longer than three months. This body would manage reception centres, while a communications plan would see local authorities, elected and community reps “included early in the information-sharing process”, but no one would have a “veto on where people can live”, the party says.

Labour leader Ivana Bacik says it is “crucial” that the Government move swiftly to implement the recommendations of the report by former European Commission secretary general Catherine Day, who chaired an advisory group to develop a long-term plan to provide accommodation for IP applicants. This would involve the establishment of “a number of large State-owned reception and integration centres, and that they launch the national public information campaign we called for before, to counter the disinformation being spread by the far right and those who are anti-migration”, said Bacik.

The Social Democrats are now also finalising a new immigration policy, which strategists have been working on for months. A source said the party wants to see a framework for providing resources to support communities where IP applicants are being housed. They want to see a move away from the over-reliance on private provision of accommodation to purpose-built State-owned centres. They will also call for significantly more staff and resources for the International Protection Office (IPO).

Aontú wants to see communities who agree to host migrants given a “community dividend” and they also want to see asylum applications completed within four months. Under their proposal, if an application is refused, the person should be “sent home within six months”. People Before Profit, meanwhile, have pledged to “stand up to racism and the scapegoating of refugees”.

There is no doubt the Government has hardened its own immigration policy in recent months. Tented encampments on Mount Street and around the Grand Canal in south Dublin city centre have been repeatedly packed up and moved to other more formal tented sites with facilities, with Taoiseach Simon Harris at one stage referring to the rows of makeshift tents as a “shantytown”.

Benefits for Ukrainians have been cut while Ministers also announced means-testing for asylum seekers, which applies to the daily expenses allowances given to people living in direct provision and international protection settings. The Government has pledged to add hundreds of staff in the IPO and to free up more gardaí for immigration duties.

Many of the Government’s policies on this issue are broadly similar to those of the Opposition: striving for greater levels of communication, ramping up the number of staff in the IPO and finding ways to increase the processing time of applications. None of those measures will magic the issue away, and the data is there to back up the assertion that immigration will still be a major focal point of the next election campaign.

[ ‘At the heart of this is poverty’: How Coolock’s pressure-cooker finally exploded ]

A report on asylum trends, which was compiled by the Department of Justice earlier this month, reveals a system under increasing strain. The number of applications pending in the IPO continues to trend upwards month on month. There were 22,965 applications pending in June, in comparison with 16,566 last September. The number of pending applications in the International Protection Appeals Tribunal has also been trending upwards since January 2023, with 5,821 applications pending.

The median processing time for determining an outcome to an asylum application has also been slowly increasing, although there was a slight decrease in June 2024. The median processing time to the determination stage for standard cases was 79 weeks in June compared with 83 weeks in May and 82 weeks in April.

In the debate around immigration policy, a huge amount of attention has also been given to deportation orders; Sinn Féin stated this week that that they wanted “greater follow-up” on such orders.

Last month, 176 deportation orders were signed, while 132 were actually issued. The Government is making arrangements for the supply of charter flight services for deportation, which could be up and running by the end of the year.

Coalition strategists were this week watching Sinn Féin’s new policy announcements carefully, aware of how politically febrile the issue has become.

Their own next move remains to be seen.