The Government hopes there may be a “September window” for a new British prime minister to reach a deal that eases British and unionist objections to how the Northern Ireland protocol operates.
But there are also fears in Dublin that the forthcoming concern for the Conservative Party leadership may harden the position of whoever takes over in Downing St.
Last night MPs voted to pass the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill in the House of Commons, rejecting all attempts to amend the Bill and clearing the way for it to proceed to the House of Lords more quickly than had been anticipated.
The legislation enables British ministers to unilaterally scrap elements of the protocol, previously agreed between the UK and EU and has been condemned by Dublin and the bloc as a violation of the EU-UK treaty which governs post-Brexit arrangements and as a breach of international law.
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The Bill is expected to meet stiff opposition when it goes to the Lords in the autumn and peers are expected to heavily amend the Bill, sending it back to the Commons and setting up what could be a lengthy tit-for-tat process between the two chambers.
But senior sources in Dublin say that the passage of the Bill, and the break before it is sent to the House of Lords, could offer a new British prime minister an opportunity to pursue a “reset” in relations with the EU.
“If a new prime minister wanted to take the initiative with the EU, a sort of reset moment, then there could be space in September,” said a senior Irish official.
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“There is a moment in September,” says another source. The source added that Brussels would be more willing to engage with the UK on possible compromises on how the protocol operates before the Bill becomes law.
But Dublin realises that the attitude of the new UK government to the protocol depends on the conduct of the election campaign and eventual winner.
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In a series of votes over the past week, Conservative MPs at Westminster have whittled down the field of contenders for the party leadership — and by extension, the post of prime minister — to just two: former chancellor Rishi Sunak and foreign secretary Liz Truss. The contest now moves to the Conservative party membership, who will choose between the two remaining candidates in a process that will conclude in early September.
While ministers and the Taoiseach have declined to comment publicly on the contest, there is little doubt that Dublin would prefer Mr Sunak to Ms Truss, who is responsible for the protocol Bill and has pursued an uncompromising position on the issue. Earlier this year, she had a fiery confrontation with Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney at a Council of Europe event in Turin, Italy, on the protocol. Ms Truss has courted the votes of the hard Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party in recent months and is seen as the candidate favoured by Boris Johnson’s outgoing Downing Street administration.
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Mr Sunak is likely to be more pragmatic, Irish Ministers and officials believe, and more concerned about the potential economic fallout from a potential trade war with the EU.
But Irish analysts also fear that the campaign to come among the Tory grassroots will force both candidates into harder positions on the protocol, constraining any prospect of a reset in September and putting the new UK government on a collision course with the EU — and with Ireland caught in the middle.
