ANALYSIS:With Kenny's party riding high since the general election, a loss in October could herald a decline in their fortunes
IT WAS appropriate that a song with the lyrics, “wishing and hoping and thinking and praying” was played over the sound system in the Dublin hotel where Fine Gael chose its presidential candidate at the weekend.
It wasn’t deliberate: the Fine Gael backroom team are good but they don’t normally do that level of detail. The Dusty Springfield number formed part of the musical background to a wedding that was taking place in the hotel at the same time.
There was something touching about the sight of the young couple and their guests mingling with the delegates from the Fine Gael selection convention: each group taking its own step into the future.
The Fine Gael contest was hard fought and it attracted a great deal of attention and this should work to the advantage of the chosen candidate, Dublin MEP Gay Mitchell.
For several weeks now, the Fine Gael deliberations have drawn attention away from the campaigns of Labour’s Michael D Higgins and Independent contenders Mary Davis, Seán Gallagher and David Norris – although the latter probably benefited from an interlude outside the limelight.
Never before has there been such intense competition to be the Fine Gael standard-bearer in the presidential race, which will culminate in October with the election. It reflects the party’s dominant position on the political scene where it holds an unprecedented 75 Dáil seats – having just lost a TD with the removal of the whip from Denis Naughten over his vote on Roscommon County Hospital.
Yes, Fine Gael is in Government and riding high. Deputies who toiled away in the barren fields of opposition for many years, now hold ministerial office.
Indeed, the convention was a welcome break from their normal duties for Michael Noonan, Alan Shatter, Richard Bruton, Jimmy Deenihan and others.
Deenihan is, of course, a former Kerry footballer and, with two other TDs in the form of former Mayo manager John O’Mahony, current Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick and former GAA president Seán Kelly MEP, it can be said that Fine Gael has done well out of the Gaelic games connection.
Everyone at the convention knew that, with its current electoral strength, organisational dynamism and broad political base, Fine Gael could win the presidency for the first time – provided it had the right candidate.
There was no lack of variety among the four who put their names forward. MEP and former broadcast journalist Mairéad McGuinness was first to enter the race on April 21st and she campaigned tirelessly for the next 11 weeks.
Like polar bears on an ice rink, several political “big beasts” were still considering their options, taking tentative steps and checking whether the ice might indeed give way beneath them.
The aforementioned Seán Kelly ruled himself out and former taoiseach John Bruton, never very enthusiastic in the first place, finally made it very clear that the Áras was not his destination of choice.
But there was no doubting the ambitions of former European Parliament president Pat Cox who had previously been in the Progressive Democrats and Fianna Fáil, although not affiliated to any political party for the last 17 years.
It had emerged Cox was advising the party ahead of the general election and key figures in the Fine Gael establishment were said to be encouraging his presidential aspirations.
Then there was Gay Mitchell, a party activist since his teenage years and a true “Dub” from Inchicore who is a proven vote-getter in his native city. He was the “anti-establishment” candidate with special appeal for those who had laboured in the Fine Gael vineyard and disliked the notion, as they saw it, of a new recruit taking one of the plum jobs of Irish politics; Liam Cosgrave is not the only Fine Gaeler to grumble about “blow-ins”.
Finally, and very late in the day, former MEP and minister of State Avril Doyle threw her elegant equestrian bonnet in the ring. She had been waiting for clarity as to Bruton’s intentions and this proved her undoing. An imposing personality with an unrivalled Fine Gael pedigree, she would have been a formidable contender if only she had declared a month earlier.
Doyle withdrew at the next-to-last minute, and then there were three. In the better traditions of Fine Gael, the campaign was quite a civil one, at least on the surface. The party had set up an “electoral college” to choose its candidate, where local authority representatives were given a minor share of the vote – 20 per cent divided among several hundred of them – but the real influence rested with members of the parliamentary party and the executive council.
Right to the end on Saturday, there were delegates who insisted they had not made up their minds. Others simply refused to show their hand, based on the sound reasoning that aligning publicly with a particular contender would jeopardise relations with the other two.
There was general consensus that Cox made the best speech, as everyone knew he would. But it wasn’t enough to swing the vote in his favour.
Although no official figures were released, usually reliable sources revealed that the Limerickman was eliminated on the first count, with Mitchell beating McGuinness by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on the second.
First-count figures cited in the different categories were as follows – Parliamentary Party (70-per-cent vote share): Mitchell 41, McGuinness 30, Cox 23; Executive Council (10 per cent): Mitchell 10, Cox 7, McGuinness 5; Councillors (20 per cent): McGuinness 140, Mitchell 107, Cox 66.
It seemed to observers that Enda Kenny was less than delighted when Mitchell was announced as the winner, although he denied at a press conference that this was the case. Whatever his personal feelings, this is a contest Fine Gael needs to win, otherwise it could herald a decline in the party’s fortunes.
Mitchell argued in the run-up to the convention that he was the only candidate who could beat Michael D Higgins in Dublin, with Enda Kenny helping to challenge the Labour candidate in the west of Ireland.
Meanwhile, Norris still clearly has support, if he can only secure a nomination. There are the other Independents and, of course, Fianna Fail and Sinn Féin still have to show their hands. It’s all still to play for in the race to become the ninth Uachtarán na hÉireann.
Deaglán de Bréadún is a Political Correspondent