With just eight days remaining until the presidential election, Independent candidate Catherine Connolly has opened a commanding lead and will be hard to beat, according to today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll.
Connolly is supported by 38 per cent of those surveyed, with Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys trailing on 20 per cent. Fianna Fáil nominee Jim Gavin, who ended his campaign 11 days ago, remains on the ballot paper and still attracts 5 per cent support.
The figures will disappoint Fine Gael, which might have hoped Gavin’s withdrawal would lift Humphreys’s prospects. That has not happened. So far, she has failed to expand her support beyond her party’s traditional base of roughly one in five voters. Connolly, by contrast, has not only consolidated backing from the left-wing parties supporting her campaign but has also made inroads among more centrist voters.
A significant number of respondents remain undecided. That suggests there is still potential for a late swing in the final days, something seen in previous presidential contests. But for it to alter the outcome, the shift would need to be on a scale never before recorded. The undecideds, along with those who do not intend to vote and a relatively large cohort planning to spoil their ballots, reflect wide disenchantment with the choices on offer. Half of those polled are dissatisfied with their options and a majority want the nomination process liberalised in future. That mood may well presage a low turnout next week.
RM Block
Connolly’s support cuts across regional and demographic lines. While Humphreys’s backing is stronger in rural areas and among older voters, she still trails in almost every segment of the population. If these figures are replicated on election day, Connolly will be well placed to win comfortably on the first count.
Awareness of that will shape how both candidates approach the closing days. Humphreys faces difficult questions about what she can do to close the gap. Attacks on Connolly’s controversial policy positions and past statements have had little effect so far. Even so, Humphreys has little choice but to intensify them, focusing particularly on Connolly’s views on the European Union.
Connolly, for her part, is now firmly established as the front-runner and needs only to avoid gaffes or unforced errors. With one television debate remaining before polling day, the two candidates are set for a final encounter that may decide whether this race has another turn in it.
Whichever way the numbers fall, this campaign has already redrawn the boundaries of Irish presidential politics, challenging some assumptions about party loyalty as well as about what exactly Irish people want from their president.
