Anyone who wants to undertake a refurbishment of their home will know that a key task is finding a builder. And if one can be found, it will soon become clear that the price has risen significantly from what it would have been a couple of years ago. In part this reflects general inflation and in part the shortage of tradespeople in all areas and the higher prices which they now charge.
This problem also exists at a national level. The latest quarterly commentary from the Economic and Social Research Institute(ESRI) underlines the point, referring to earlier research it presented, which showed that 40,000 additional employees would be required to increase annual output by 20,000 homes. It had appeared that a fall-off in non-residential construction such as offices might help here, but this has picked up again in the first quarter of this year, while residential construction has fallen.
This is part of the reason why the ESRI is cautious on the issue of housing completions this year, saying on current trends that around 33,000 might be delivered, followed by 37,000 next year. And it warns that even these relatively modest forecasts face some “notable” downside risks.
The ESRI says it makes this point in part to underline the difficulty of ramping up housing supply quickly. And it underlines some obvious policy directions in trying to boost training in the sector and also improve productivity through more modern construction methods.
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However, it also points to one more immediate implication. The Government is working on an update of its National Development Programme, the State’s long-term investment plan.
The dilemma for the Coalition is that doing everything quickly will not be possible, with the economy at full capacity. Trying to progress on all fronts would only push up construction inflation – and anyway would not be achievable, due in part to the shortage of employees. Planning and prioritisation is thus essential. The State has the cash, for now at least, but delivery is complex.
