The Government is in a very difficult position on housing. And there are few signs that things are improving. To make a start in the right direction first requires one vital thing – an acceptance that “more of the same” in terms of policy will simply not be enough.
The figures in recent months have been uniformly poor, notably those showing that housing completions last year were not far above 30,000, when during the general election campaign senior ministers had been promising close to 40,000. On Monday, the latest report from Daft.ie, the property website, showed asking prices for new rentals exceeded €2,000 on average for the first time.
Meanwhile, figures for housing commencement notices have showed a sharp annual fall, even though last year’s had been inflated by incentive deadlines. All the money being spent on new schemes is not paying off as it should. An honest examination of these – and why they are still not working – might not be a bad place to start.
And it is essential that rather than piling up more schemes on top of those already there, the Government focuses forensically on the fundamental issues, such as planning, the cost of building and aligning all parts of the State machinery. If it does not do this in the coming months then, politically, it will see no benefit by the time of the next general election.
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High rents are just one symptom of the wider problem in the housing market, driven fundamentally by lack of supply. The latest figures from Daft.ie on new rentals are striking, albeit that those in existing tenancies face somewhat lower costs. A key area for the Government here is that while the Rent Pressure Zone rules offer some protection to existing tenants, they also seem to be one of the factors stymying new supply. The Housing Commission recommended an amended scheme, rather than a free for all. The latter is clearly not possible at current rent levels.
The issues in terms of accelerating new supply apply across the board in the housing market and are not easily solved. But so far the Government has not given any clear indication of how it will improve things, bar the creation of a plethora of new taskforces and groups which may or may not make things better. At least they should ensure more clarity on the key issues. And help with decisions on implementing the new planning bill and whether, in fact, more fundamental changes are required.
Ultimately, responsibility comes back to the Minister for Housing, James Browne as well as the Taoiseach and other senior cabinet members. Ministers tell us that housing is an emergency, but are they prepared to treat it as one, which will involve discommoding those who are already housed in order to build for those who are not? And resetting incentives across the system in favour of the generation currently locked out of the housing market.
