So, Nigel Farage is now effectively the leader of the opposition and is set on a clear course to become the UK’s next prime minister. This is the triumphant Reform UK narrative in the wake of Thursday’s English local and one victorious by-election, in Runcorn and Helsby. Maybe, maybe not. Much swirling water must yet flow under the bridge and cascade through a voting system that is more roulette wheel than a democratic test of opinion.
What Thursday’s votes have exposed as never before is the reality that the old two-party rule is, courtesy of first-past-the-post voting, now completely at odds with the four- or five-party reality on the ground.
Labour’s “landslide” last July, with just 33.7 per cent of the vote, the lowest of any majority party on record, and the tiny Commons representation of Reform , were in effect the last hurrah of the old voting system. Yesterday, as Reform overtook Labour to head the polls, all the system’s contradictions played out, transforming the landscape.
In the race for the West of England mayoralty – the only true five-party contest in these elections – the Tories, recently the party of government, were even relegated to fourth place, behind Labour, Reform and the Greens.
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Although it lost Runcorn, Labour did just about hold out in mayoral elections in North Tyneside, Doncaster, and West of England, but Reform UK made big gains in council seats across England, its vote share running as high as 39 per cent, and it won control of several councils, including Durham, Lincolnshire and Staffordshire.
For the Tories who had held 1,182 of the 1,641 contested seats, the day was catastrophic, losing hundreds of council seats . Squeezed on the left by the Liberal Democrats and on the right by Reform UK, the new party leader Kemi Badenoch has yet to clarify where she stands and now faces a potential leadership challenge.
This first electoral test for the government has signalled deep voter disillusionment, and huge volatility, but also a confusing message of where UK politics is now heading.
