Political stability is indicated by the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil looking set to lead the next government, possibly in alliance with a smaller party or a group of Independents. Indeed, the rise in support for independent candidates is one of the most striking aspects of the poll, and some may well play a role in the formation of the next government.
Fine Gael has slipped a bit since the last poll in September but retains its position as the largest party on 25 per cent and, while satisfaction with Taoiseach Simon Harris has also dropped, he remains the most popular party leader.
Fianna Fáil has not moved from the 19 per cent it achieved in the last poll but the party is now level with Sinn Féin for the first time since the current government took office and Micheál Martin is well ahead of Mary Lou McDonald in terms of popularity.
The poll was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week as the election campaign got into full swing. Unless something dramatic happens in the final two weeks of the campaign, it is difficult to see how Sinn Féin could recover the position it held for much of the past few years as the most popular party in the State. That said, the campaign has still really to take shape. On past experience, the last 10 days will be critical.
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While support for the two large parties in Government is relatively stable, the same cannot be said for their junior partner, the Greens. The party is now down to just 3 per cent, a level that raises doubts as to whether it will come back with enough seats to make it a viable coalition partner.
The news is mixed for the other small parties. Labour has dropped a point to 5 per cent but it is still ahead of the Social Democrats who are on 4 per cent and People Before Profit- Solidarity, who are on 2 per cent.
In Dublin, Labour is ahead of all the smaller parties and that will give the party’s candidates hope that they can emulate the performance of Aodhán Ó Ríordáin in the European Parliament election by staying in the race long enough to benefit from transfers from other left-wing parties.
An interesting feature of the poll is that support for Aontú has increased from 1 per cent to 3 per cent since September. It does best in Leinster outside Dublin, raising the prospect that party leader Peadar Tóibín will not only hold his seat in Meath West but could be joined by another TD.
Support for Independents is up four points since the last poll to 20 per cent. That means that they are likely to threaten seats which the big parties would have hoped to take. They will almost certainly be a significant presence in the next Dáil – and possibly even as part of the next government, or supporting it from the backbenches.
Heading into the vital closing stages of the campaign, there is much still to play for.