The decision of Moldovan voters to back EU accession, albeit by a tiny majority, is a significant political blow to Moscow’s regional ambitions. Following its failed attempts to browbeat neighbouring Ukraine into withdrawing its EU bid, Vladimir Putin had warned Moldova not to do likewise. He had invested in influencing the country’s voters to reject membership, just as Russia is also campaigning in troubled Georgia’s current election.
Moldova’s knife-edge weekend vote, by 50.4 per cent to 49.6, in a referendum to include EU membership as an aspiration in the constitution, came as voters also gave strong backing to pro-EU President Maria Sandu (42 per cent) in her re-election bid. She will face a second round ballot on November 3rd against her main rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, whose candidacy has been backed by the pro-Russian Socialist party.
Europe’s poorest country, a state of 2.5 million people between Ukraine and Romania that was part of the Soviet Union, Moldova applied for EU membership after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, seen by many as a likely prelude to its swallowing up of Moldova. The union agreed to open accession talks earlier this year, pledging a €1.8 billion multi-year aid package, but the country is likely to take some years to meet the union’s economic and political entry requirements.
Russian attempts to influence the referendum are alleged to have included funding pro-Kremlin opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections and backing a major vote-buying scheme. The latter, the brainchild of fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, included top-up pension payments to pensioners who agreed to vote No. He denies wrongdoing, openly offering on social media to pay Moldovans to convince others to vote No.
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Opposition to EU membership has been strongest in poor rural areas and those dominated by ethnic minorities, including Russians. The balance in favour of a Yes vote appears to have been tipped by late ballot returns from the country’s large diaspora across the EU.