Superficially, this year’s domestic political agenda had relatively few moments of high-octane drama. There were no elections or referendums. No senior minister was forced to resign. Holly Cairns became leader of the Social Democrats, but the other party leaders remained as secure in their positions at the end of the year as they had been at the beginning.
One might conclude, therefore, that 2023 was merely a scene-setter for the big electoral contests set to take place in Ireland and across the democratic world in 2024. That would only be partly true. Beneath the day-to-day political narrative, tectonic plates are shifting.
For the Government parties, this was probably the last full year for them to establish a convincing story of successful delivery on key promises to the electorate: a strong economy, better services and the glimmer of an end to the housing crisis. On all of these, the end of year report card is mixed.
The economy remained buoyant, although a series of disappointing monthly corporate tax returns caused some jitters before the money tree bloomed again in November. The erratic flow served to prove the point that these are windfall revenues and should be treated accordingly. Whether that means investing in funds for the future or providing one-off subsidies to cushion consumers from cost-of-living shocks was a two-way bet which the Government was happy to take, a decision characterised disapprovingly by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council as “fiscal gimmickry”. With the global economy slowing and geo-political uncertainty on the rise, that critique may be tested in the not too distant future.
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The fact that new homes are coming on stream at a greater speed than before but still fall well short of what is required continues to be a boon for Sinn Féin and the other Opposition parties, as does the decision to allocate a sum to the 2024 health budget which nobody believes is realistic.
The two larger Government parties, having executed the rotation of the positions of taoiseach and finance minister last December, still find themselves in much the same poll position they occupied before. Micheál Martin continues to be Fianna Fáil’s strongest asset, but the party still struggles with young and urban voters. Leo Varadkar’s second term as Taoiseach has been rather more low-key than his first, and a steady trickle of Fine Gael TDs announcing their retirement from politics adds to the sense of a party showing signs of wear and tear as it approaches an unprecedented 13 consecutive years in office.
The Greens might console themselves that their apparently permanent status as the bogeymen of rural Irish backbenchers may be a perverse sign of the party’s success in bringing its objectives of reducing emissions and protecting biodiversity into the mainstream. Not for the first time, the Irish political system has shown it offers opportunities for smaller parties to have a disproportionate impact.
Is Sinn Féin becalmed or is it consolidating? After the breakthrough of the 2020 election, and its subsequent surge to become indisputably the most popular party, Sinn Féin has, like its rivals, maintained its position with only marginal changes over the course of the year. It remains to be seen whether that represents a ceiling, or if a further push, potentially at the expense of the smaller left parties, is possible before the election.
The party has seemed less surefooted when the focus shifts from its preferred terrain of housing, health and cost-of-living towards questions of crime and public order. McDonald was not helped by the glare of publicity around her former party colleague, convicted criminal Jonathan Dowdall, but she remains Sinn Féin’s most formidable electoral asset.
The party still awaits the historic moment when Michelle O’Neill assumes the First Ministership at Stormont. On the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement, the institutions established by it looked less healthy than ever. The DUP’s refusal to re-enter the Executive has meant a further year of suspended animation for the North’s devolved government. Meanwhile, serious deficiencies in the NHS and other services remain unaddressed. If there are new governments in London and Dublin next year, that may increase the impetus for a more radical re-working of structures which as it stands are failing to deliver good governance to Northern Ireland.
2023 may come to be remembered as the year in which immigration became a hot-button political issue here, as has happened already in so many other countries. With the Government struggling to accommodate large numbers of international protection applicants and Ukrainian refugees, local tensions rose around the country, culminating in serious riots in Dublin.
In this as in everything else, Irish politics are inextricably interwoven with international events. Climate change, war in Ukraine and the Middle East and political turbulence in Europe were all to the forefront of Irish political debate in 2023. That is likely to be even more true in 2024.