The homing instinct of Irish emigrants who return to Ireland in such huge numbers at this time of the year is one of the heart-warming certainties of Christmas. In contrast, the homecoming this year coincides with much uncertainty in many of the adopted countries where members of the Irish diaspora are based. 2016 been marked by tumultuous, largely unforeseen events. The developed world going into 2017 is less stable politically and the economic tectonic plates are shifting between superpower economies. The outcome of a recasting of the global corporate tax regime is another unknown. But one thing is certain; it brings considerable risk for Ireland.
How Brexit manifests itself and the Trump presidency in the US plays out will not only have a huge bearing on our domestic economy but also on the wellbeing of so many of the Irish abroad. The risk to the status of the Irish in Britain when Brexit reaches the critical negotiation phase is considerable. In spite of vague commitments about retaining the open Border with Northern Ireland and the common travel area, this position is less likely to be deliverable with a harder disengagement from the EU – by accident or design.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan has been trying to reassure "hundreds of thousands of Irish people who are resident in the UK, many for generations, that we are most certainly prioritising the unique relationships between the people on the island of Great Britain and the island of Ireland".
It contrasts with British prime minister Theresa May’s comments when she appeared to link the issue of Irish citizens rights in the UK to securing a reciprocal arrangement for UK citizens living in the EU after Brexit. A strong Anglo-Irish relationship aside, a Conservative government may not be adverse to using us as a bargaining chip.
The US in many ways may be the more immediate threat given the unbridled campaign rhetoric of Donald Trump. The J-1 visa programme, an important cultural exchange that allows Irish students to work for 12 months in the US, was extended recently. All very welcome. The bigger concern is the status of the “undocumented Irish”; conservatively estimated at 50,000 people. The tone of the discourse is changing. The connotations of “illegals” is much more negative compared to the quiet flexibility and tolerance of the past. Deportation at an earlier stage of appeal is already evident. Trump’s anti-immigrant stance is likely to translate into a harsher system.
On a more positive note, a great many Irish people have a roaming gene. They fit in well in all corners of the global village with the ability to adapt in multiracial societies. That quality has not diminished in the past year. It should equip them well for imminent threats ahead.