Selection gives Obama chance to reframe the presidential race into a referendum on Bush’s unpopular policies
BARACK OBAMA’S choice of Joe Biden as his running mate adds valuable foreign policy experience and a highly effective attack dog to the Democratic ticket, as the presidential race has narrowed to a dead heat. More importantly, it offers Obama a chance to reframe the race from a debate about his own readiness for office into a referendum on the unpopular policies of the Bush administration.
Since Obama secured his party’s nomination in June, John McCain has succeeded in making the Democrat the central issue of the campaign, caricaturing Obama as an aloof, lightweight celebrity who is not ready to lead the country.
Under this harsh spotlight, Obama’s poll lead has almost vanished as his negative ratings have climbed and the white, working-class voters who could decide November’s election remain unmoved by the Illinois senator’s appeal.
As a Catholic, born in the Irish-American working-class stronghold of Scranton, Pennsylvania, Biden represents a bridge to such voters, whose concerns about such issues as crime and economic insecurity he articulates more effectively than Obama.
His 36 years as a senator, his expertise in foreign affairs and his familiarity with Washington’s bureaucracy could also help to reassure voters concerned about Obama’s ability to govern if he is elected.
And Biden’s enthusiasm for aggressive campaigning will ensure that Republican attacks on the Democratic ticket will be met with a sharp response from now on.
The choice of Biden reflects a growing awareness within Obama’s campaign that despite an economy on the verge of recession, an unpopular war in Iraq and a Republican president with historically low popularity ratings, November’s election will be a tough fight for Democrats.
Obama could have reinforced his message of change by choosing another Washington outsider like Virginia governor, Tim Kaine, or Kansas governor, Kathleen Sebelius.
He might have enhanced his chances of winning the swing state of Indiana by picking the state’s youthful senator and former governor, Evan Bayh.
Instead, Obama took the safer option, seeking to reassure voters about his own lack of foreign policy experience and recruiting an attack dog to train on his Republican opponent.
With his reputation as a “gaffe-machine”, the garrulous Biden is not an entirely safe choice, although he has shown greater message discipline in recent months.
McCain’s campaign has already started running ads featuring Biden’s declaration that Obama is not yet ready to be president and Republicans are likely to highlight his initial support for the Iraq war, which Obama opposed from the outset.
None of this is likely to have much effect, however, particularly if McCain chooses as his running mate a former rival for the Republican nomination such as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, with whom he clashed sharply during the primaries.
What remains unclear is the impact picking Biden will have on former supporters of Hillary Clinton, up to a quarter of whom tell pollsters they will vote for McCain in November.
Their mood was not improved last week by the news that Clinton had not even made Obama’s shortlist, that she was not vetted, and that neither she nor former president Bill Clinton were approached for advice about the vice-presidential choice.
Some of Clinton’s closest advisors and a number of her top fundraisers complain privately about what they perceive as the arrogance of the Obama campaign in failing to embrace supporters of his defeated rival and doing little to help her pay down her campaign debt.
Her speech to the Democratic convention in Denver tomorrow could help to persuade her former backers to get behind Obama, but those close to her claim that the former first lady cannot turn her supporters on and off “like a switch”.
Biden’s background and experience will be useful in reaching former Clinton supporters, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio. His long record of support for Israel could also help Obama to win over sceptical Jewish voters in Florida.
As one of the senate’s most vociferous advocates of gun control, however, Biden may offer little help in the south, where Obama had hoped to redraw the electoral map, boosting African-American turnout in an effort to win back states that no Democrat since Bill Clinton has taken.
In their joint appearance in Springfield, Illinois, on Saturday, the Democratic candidates made clear that they are preparing to go on the offensive, tagging McCain as a continuation of George W Bush by other means.
Biden, who counts McCain as a friend, accused the Republican of abandoning his role as a maverick, pandering to the conservative right in order to win his party’s nomination.
Polls show that an overwhelming majority of Americans believe their country is on the wrong track and Democratic policies on the economy, healthcare and foreign policy are more popular than those of the Republicans.
If Obama and Biden can shift the focus away from the personality of their presidential candidate to make the election about the issues that affect voters’ everyday lives, polls suggest they should have the edge in November.
Republicans have shown remarkable skill at winning presidential elections in recent years, however, notably by transforming the strengths of Democratic candidates into apparent weaknesses.
Thus, Al Gore’s intelligence was portrayed as cerebral elitism and John Kerry’s record as a war hero was turned on its head in the Swift Boat attacks.
This year, the Republicans have sought to turn Obama’s personal charisma against him, so that his ability to attract huge crowds is seen less as a remarkable gift for energising politics than as evidence of his lack of substance.
Obama’s charisma will be on display in Denver this week when he accepts his party’s nomination before 75,000 people, but with Biden by his side, the Democrat may be able to persuade Americans that beneath the star quality lies grit, determination and not a little aggression.