ANALYSIS:The European election results here show the high value of name recognition, which worked well for Labour and Fine Gael, but didn't help Declan Ganley
THE DIFFERENCE between campaigning for a seat in the European Parliament and a Dáil election is aptly summed up by a Labour Party activist with experience of both: “It’s more of an aerial war than a ground war.” This reflects the sheer size of the European constituencies, both geographically and in terms of population.
Compare the Dublin South East Dáil constituency, for example, which has some 60,000 names on the electoral register, with the Ireland East European constituency, which has 758,000.
Hence the need to operate above ground level. Research indicates that many of the people who vote in a Dáil election will actually have met the candidate who got their first preference. That just isn’t possible in a European race.
That’s why name recognition is so crucially important. The latest European election here certainly vindicates the need to have a candidate with whom the public can identify. Indeed, given the propensity to hold the local elections on the same day, a high-profile European candidate is less likely to be confused with those who are seeking a seat on a city or county council.
Fine Gael is to the fore in the name-recognition stakes, running former GAA president Seán Kelly in Ireland South (formerly Munster) and, of course, with former RTÉ agriculture journalist Mairead McGuinness, who stood for the first time five years ago, getting elected on the first count in the East constituency.
McGuinness repeated the achievement this time around: her success, and the triumph of George Lee in the Dublin South byelection to the Dáil, may mean that other parties will be leafing through the pages of the RTÉ Guide when voting time looms once more.
Labour’s Nessa Childers is not a television celebrity, but she bears a surname that resonates with many members of the public who still remember her late father, president Erskine H Childers. Her grandfather, Robert Erskine Childers, played a role in the War of Independence and the Civil War. Indeed, Fianna Fáil canvassers met older members of the party during the campaign who assumed Nessa Childers was “one of ours”.
Likewise, Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party enjoys a certain celebrity status arising mainly from his witty interventions during his 10 years as a TD, most famously when he said of Bertie Ahern: “Asking the taoiseach a question is like trying to play handball against a haystack. You hear a dull thud and the ball never comes back to you.”
But the failure of Declan Ganley to win a seat in North West (formerly Connacht-Ulster) shows that name and face recognition isn’t enough. The Libertas leader garnered a formidable 67,638 first preferences, but it appears he could not attract sufficient transfers to push him over the line.
Ganley's defeat has implications for the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, now expected to take place at the end of September or in early October. During the election campaign, he told RTÉ Radio One's News at One: "If I do not get a mandate and win a seat, I would not think it would be the right thing to lead a campaign against the Lisbon Treaty referendum."
Although he would not be the leader, he could still take part in a campaign, of course, as well as provide resources. Libertas was critical to the success of the No side in the first referendum, and will no doubt be a participant next time as well. But the dual setback for its leader and for the other Libertas candidates throughout Europe will diminish the organisation’s effectiveness.
Another loser in the European stakes in the Republic – as distinct from Northern Ireland, where Bairbre de Brún topped the poll – is Sinn Féin. The reduction in the number of seats in Dublin from four to three, the popular appeal of Joe Higgins and doubts raised over Mary Lou McDonald’s attendance record at the European Parliament put paid to Sinn Féin’s chances in Dublin.
Sinn Féin’s candidate in North West, Donegal-based Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, was seen as a strong contender until Fianna Fáil nominated Pat “the Cope” Gallagher, who snatched the Donegal vote away from him. Gallagher was a late replacement for sitting MEP Seán Ó Neachtain, who decided not to run again. Although it didn’t look like it at the time, this was a rare lucky break for Fianna Fáil, who might have lost the seat if Ó Neachtain had stayed in the race; Gallagher is a famed vote-getter.
The vagaries of proportional representation are seen in the fact that Fine Gael could win two seats in Ireland East with 183,760 first preferences in 2004, but were unable to do so this time with 172,217 votes. Party strategists concede that outgoing Fine Gael MEP Avril Doyle had higher name-recognition than Senator John Paul Phelan, although the latter is seen to have performed very well, especially for a first-timer.
But it was Labour’s day, with Proinsias De Rossa sailing home comfortably in Dublin, Nessa Childers taking a seat in East and Senator Alan Kelly taking the third seat in South.
The choice of Childers as a candidate was the brainchild of party leader Eamon Gilmore, who saw her potential to appeal to Fianna Fáil and republican elements. As a former Green Party councillor she also appealed to that sector of the electorate, particularly in the absence of a Green candidate in the constituency.
Perhaps the most remarkable moment of the campaign was when ex-taoiseach and former Fine Gael leader Garret FitzGerald appealed for transfers to pro-Lisbon candidates such as Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan.
This was not appreciated in Fine Gael circles – a party strategist commented: “The intervention of Garret on behalf of Eoin Ryan was unhelpful”. Fianna Fáil backroom people were quite pleased because, as one of them put it: “The people like Garret FitzGerald.”
Deaglán de Bréadún is a political correspondent with
The Irish Times