When it comes to geopolitics, there are mountains of things Donald Trump regards as natural. Indeed, as president, he has laid claim to many places on behalf of the United States and, occasionally, on his own behalf or that of his family and friends: Cuba, Greenland, Iceland, Canada, parts of Gaza and Ukraine, the Gulf of Mexico, Lake Ontario, the Strait of Hormuz, the Panama Canal, and bits and bobs of South America. In his mind – not a high bar, to be honest – all of these claims make sense.
So his comments during his visit to Ireland should be seen in that light. Asked about the controversy sparked by them his response was pure Trumpian autopilot: “I loved them ... I love my comments. I have always loved the people of Ireland, and it just seems to me that you have Northern Ireland and Ireland, and it would seem to me that one of the naturals of all time is put them together.” To be honest, I was half expecting him to make a pitch for a united Ireland as the 53rd state of America – the Golf State, perhaps.
Trumps’s approach to politics is the same as his approach to business: get on with it. I don’t know if he is across the details of the Belfast Agreement or if he had been briefed on the flight over. But he is aware of the provisions for a Border poll, even if he has no idea about the criteria required for triggering it. Still, his assorted commentary over Saturday and Sunday – and apparently he was the one who mentioned the subject first – can be summed up in that favourite mantra, “Get on with it.”
Of course, this being Trump, none of it amounts to a hill of beans in terms of getting anything done. A united Ireland is no nearer today than it was before he landed; and there’s a fair chance he will have forgotten all about it by the time he gets back to the Oval Office and returns to his everyday obsessions with ballrooms, reflecting pools and appointing someone to chisel his likeness on Mount Rushmore.
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What he left behind was a trough of embarrassment for the UK government and for unionism in Northern Ireland. A couple of weeks ago, during a visit to Belfast, British prime minister Andy Burnham said the idea of a Border poll was “off the table”. Cue huge cheers from unionism and noisy anger from nationalism. Chris Bryant, the newly appointed Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, opted for damage limitation and insisted that the UK government remained clear on its responsibilities as set out in the Belfast Agreement and that nothing had changed. But unionists still claimed a significant victory.
Leading figures from the UK’s national parties have expressed their concerns about Trump’s comments, confirming that Northern Ireland’s future is a matter for the UK. But they shied away from the sort of openly hostile response that could trigger anything resembling a Trump meltdown. Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform Party and a very close friend of the president, took a harder, yet measured line: “Northern Ireland is a proud and integral part of the United Kingdom. The people of Northern Ireland neither want a referendum, nor unification. I disagree with president Trump.”
The general view from London is that Trump’s comments won’t have legs. He won’t be pushing for a Border poll anytime soon – he has enough else on his plate. Nor will he be instructing his vice-president or anyone else to put pressure on the UK or Irish governments to set out a timetable or criteria for one. That said, coming so quickly after Burnham’s earlier comments about a Border poll, it has meant the issue again dominating the news agenda in Northern Ireland; something that is unsettling unionism in particular.
In fairness, Trump has done unionists no favours. Nor has he kick-started a major crisis for them. It’s not unusual for US presidents to boast about their Irish ancestry – some view it as a softish electoral base – but equally, it’s not uncommon for unionism to boast of the Ulster-Scots connections that have played a significant part in America’s history. Generally speaking, these two sides of history have tended to rub along fairly gently. And while some presidents haven’t hidden their sympathy for Irish unity, I can’t think of one who has viewed it as a key dimension of their foreign policy.
Trump’s comments seem to have crossed that line. Speaking so emphatically in favour of unification, he ignored the fact that Ireland and Northern Ireland are two separate places constitutionally, and that Northern Ireland is, by majority decision, an integral part of the UK. He also ignored the Belfast Agreement deal endorsed by both countries in the 1998 referendum. Crucially, though, he didn’t call for an immediate Border poll.
But it still leaves unionism with the problem of being let down by someone of whom it once had a benign view. It isn’t a new experience. From the closure of the Northern Ireland parliament in 1972, to finding itself in what TUV leader Jim Allister MP described as a “colony status” in the EU after the 2023 Framework Agreement, unionism has been serially let down or abandoned altogether by presumed friends. On none of those occasions did it learn lessons.
Speaking on Monday morning, DUP Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly said: “It should be a wake-up call for unionism. The UK is stronger together. Donald Trump wanted to bully the UK on Iran. I’m not worried about his comments.” I agree that Trump’s comments do not represent an existential problem for unionism. Yet history suggests that unionism rarely responds sensibly and strategically to a wake-up call.
Alex Kane is a political commentator and former communications director of the Ulster Unionist Party
