Opinion

Venezuelans vote with their feet as optimism evaporates

Worldview: A quarter of the population has fled the country under Nicolas Maduro’s rule

Hundreds of election protests across the country have been met with a brutal crackdown. Photograph: Pedro Rances Mattey/AFP via Getty Images
Patrick Smyth's picture
Patrick Smyth
Sat Aug 31 2024 - 06:00

Elections were not working, so Venezuelans were voting with their feet. In advance of the July 28th election, 11 years in to Nicolas Maduro’s rule, almost eight million Venezuelans, a quarter of the population, had fled their country. Only Afghanistan and Syria have seen a bigger refugee exodus, with Ukraine close behind. In that time, under the corrupt and brutal supposedly “socialist” Maduro regime, GDP has crashed by close to three quarters, plunging half the remaining population of the once oil-rich country into poverty. The country’s sovereign and state oil company debt has soared to an unsustainable $160 billion.

Widespread optimism that the election could mark a turning point and see the back of the man whom polls showed was increasingly unpopular proved short-lived. Despite documented results showing a decisive opposition victory from the country’s 15,000 polling stations, collated by opposition volunteers – the certificates are available for inspection online – Maduro insists he has a majority and clings to power with the support, but no evidence, from the official electoral commission and now the supreme court packed with his supporters.

Hundreds of protests have swept the country, many for the first time emanating from the working class barrios that were once bastions of Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chávez, the architect of Venezuela’s “Bolivarian Revolution”. They were met with a brutal crackdown, involving tear gas and bullets, that has cost at least 24 lives and has seen 2,000-plus jailed. Significantly, according to Venezuelan human rights organisation Provea, 80 per cent of the arrests have been from those working class communities. One local media outlet reported that in the state of Zulia, members of the National Guard dragged away a priest as his congregation watched. “Christ, prince of peace,” they sang, falling to their knees as he was taken away. Opposition leaders, including María Corina Machado, banned from standing, and Edmundo González, a retired diplomat who stood in her place, have gone into hiding or jail.

Now the police are going door-to-door in “Operation Knock Knock”, dragging suspects from beds while the regime has been confiscating passports of those suspected of disloyalty. It has launched an app with which neighbours are supposed to denounce opposition supporters. A new law tightly regulates NGOs. The crackdown is not new but unprecedentedly ferocious – last year, a UN report documented crimes against humanity committed by Maduro and other top officials including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detentions and torture.

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“Maximum punishment! Justice!” Maduro boasted to supporters at a post-election rally. “There will be no forgiveness this time!” He insists he is the election winner, that his government is facing a coup attempt from far-right fascists backed by the US, and that he will do whatever is necessary to crush it. Last week he accused opponents of being part of a worldwide “satanic” plot linked to Elon Musk, with whom he has clashed publicly.

[ Thousands of Venezuelans march over contested election despite warnings from Maduro ]

His power now rests substantially on the military, the Bolivarian National Guard (a military police force), armed militias linked to his United Socialist Party (USP) who patrol the streets on motorbikes looking for “subversives”, and three different intelligence services. The military has extended its tentacles into key sectors of the economy, including the all-important oil industry. Its continued loyalty has been guaranteed by generous pay increases and promotions: the 130,000-strong military now has 2,000 generals and admirals. That may not be enough, however. One NGO, Foro Penal, estimates that before the election members of the armed forces made up about half of the country’s political prisoners.

An insecure Maduro has also relied on Cuban security and intelligence advisers who have been a key part of his entourage for years, providing personal bodyguards and running an extensive counter-intelligence operation to surveil the military for signs of disloyalty. Three flights packed with Cuban troops are reported to have arrived in advance of the elections to reinforce the regime.

But aside from Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro has found no willingness in the neighbourhood to recognise his “victory”. Argentina, Uruguay and the US have formally acknowledged Gonzalez’s win. The EU disputes the election’s legitimacy and the UN maintains that the country’s electoral body “did not comply with the basic measures of transparency and integrity that are essential for the conduct of credible elections”.

[ US says Maduro lost Venezuela vote as he seeks to jail rivals ]

Brazil and Colombia are pursuing negotiations between Maduro and the opposition, though to no avail yet. Their respective presidents, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro, both leftists, have also floated a rerun of the election while the former has refused to accept Maduro’s legitimacy. Further international sanctions are expected, targeted at regime officials and Maduro himself.

And the people are again voting with their feet. A national poll reports up to 40 per cent of the country’s population wants to emigrate, to join the 3 million in neighbouring Colombia, 1.5 million in Peru, and about half a million each in Brazil and Chile.