Austrian snap election likely as coalition teeters

Conservative wunderkind Sebastian Kurz (30) tipped to be country’s next leader

Sebastian Kurz, right: the Austrian foreign minister effectively pulled the plug on Vienna’s unhappy grand coalition on Friday. Photograph: Inga Kjer/Photothek via Getty Images
Sebastian Kurz, right: the Austrian foreign minister effectively pulled the plug on Vienna’s unhappy grand coalition on Friday. Photograph: Inga Kjer/Photothek via Getty Images

Days after France elected 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron president, Austrian voters may soon elect a chancellor nine years his junior.

On Friday Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s 30-year-old foreign minister, effectively pulled the plug on Vienna’s unhappy grand coalition, saying he favoured going to the people rather than limping on for another year.

On Wednesday Mr Kurz, wunderkind of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP), moved into pole position as likely new leader following the resignation of long-suffering chairman Reinhold Mitterlehner.

Though Mr Kurz has yet to confirm he wants to head the ÖVP, he said on Friday it was more honest to end the current alliance, as junior partner to the Social Democrats (SPÖ), than endure further speculation about a snap poll.

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“Things can’t go on as they were,” he said. “I think fresh elections are the best way to make change possible and end the endless election campaign.” This week SPÖ chancellor Christian Kern, in office less than a year, proposed a new reform pact and political reshuffle – dismissed by his junior rival.

“I think we’d end up in the same situation we’ve been stuck in for a long time,” said Mr Kurz. “Small compromises would be struck which wouldn’t lead to any changes.”

Autumn elections

Although it would be unpopular in the government, autumn elections would have a new administration in place by year-end rather than have the country gearing up for a campaign in the second half of 2018, when Austria assumes the rotating EU presidency.

Austria’s SPÖ and ÖVP have shared power for much of the post-war decades but recent administrations have been more notable for endless political feuding than energetic reforms. Anger at the political standstill, and a record jobless rate of almost 6 per cent, saw voters shun both mainstream parties in last year’s presidential election.

Others have long since abandoned the mainstream for the anti-EU, migration critical far-right alternative, the populist Freedom Party (FPÖ).

After years leading polls, the FPÖ support has slipped to put it neck and neck with Mr Kern’s Social Democrats, with the conservatives (ÖVP) in third place.

But conservatives are optimistic Mr Kurz as leader could swing the election in their favour, giving the ÖVP first refusal of coalition partners. Mr Kurz is playing hard to get, however, insisting he will only take over the intrigue-ridden party if the leader’s political powers are increased at the expense of powerful regional figures.

Speculation rife

Unless he gets his way, speculation is rife the popular foreign minister might follow Mr Macron and found his own political movement.

Positioning himself for the post-election horse-trading, Mr Kurz said he believed both SPÖ leader Christian Kern or FPÖ head Heinz-Christian Strache “both want what’s best for Austria”. But Mr Kurz’s ramped-up migration rhetoric in the last year have prompted speculation he is leaning towards the latter.

After moving to close the so-called Balkan route for migrants last year, the foreign minister has said ongoing migration into the EU means national border controls are now more appropriate than Schengen open borders.

Derek Scally

Derek Scally

Derek Scally is an Irish Times journalist based in Berlin