The EU's Environment Commissioner, Ms Margot Wallstrom, is pessimistic about the outcome of this week's climate conference in Bonn. She places the blame on President George Bush, whom she accuses of putting pressure on countries such as Japan to follow the US in rejecting the Kyoto Protocol.
"I can't guess what their intentions are but, of course, it will be more difficult for them if the rest of the world agrees in Bonn," she said last week.
EU politicians have complained that Mr Bush is breaking a promise he made in Gothenburg last month to allow other countries to make up their own minds on the protocol.
If the EU can persuade Japan and Russia to ratify Kyoto, the US would be isolated. EU politicians hope the US could then be persuaded to back the deal. But the EU is reluctant to go it alone on the climate-change treaty because the measures to reduce emissions would place a financial burden on European industry that companies in other countries would not have to bear.
Germany's Environment Minister, Mr Jurgen Trittin, indicated this week that Europe might be prepared to compromise on some elements of the protocol to persuade Japan to come on board.
"The substance of the Kyoto Protocol is: we must have a treaty that is binding under international law and will lead to real reductions.
"It's not so important in protecting the climate whether the emission of greenhouse gases falls by 5.5 per cent or 6 per cent by 2012. It's more important that there should generally be a limit on further rises to achieve real reductions against the actual development. There might be room for manoeuvre on that in the first period up to 2012," he said.
Mr Trittin said Europe expected the US to show it was taking action against climate change, even if it rejected the Kyoto Protocol.
Most European observers look to the next climate conference in Morocco in October, by which time they hope it might be easier to persuade other countries to sign the protocol. Meanwhile, Ms Wallstrom hopes some minor issues will be agreed in Bonn.
"It would be good if we succeeded in doing something for the developing countries. They need financial help to make investments in climate protection," she said.
The Dutch Environment Minister, Mr Jan Pronk, who is chairing this week's conference, has proposed the establishment of a $1 billion fund to help poorer countries reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
Although European ministers are willing to make compromises to secure a deal in Bonn, Ms Wallstrom warned that readiness to compromise would have to be limited.
"The limit is reached where the credibility of the protocol would suffer. We must remember what these negotiations are about: we want to achieve something in the real world. You can't negotiate over the climate itself: climate change is happening. What people expect from us is that we should fight against it," she said.
