Rain reflects the political mood as Brussels jumps back on the EU carousel

The waiters are grumpier than usual, the shop assistants a little snappier and the raincoat-clad officials shuffling around Brussels…

The waiters are grumpier than usual, the shop assistants a little snappier and the raincoat-clad officials shuffling around Brussels' European quarter are more long-faced than ever. After a month-long break during which almost every shop and restaurant in the district shut down, Europe's capital is back to work - and nobody is enjoying the experience.

"It's like the first day back at school with new faces everywhere and everyone wishing they were still on holidays," one diplomat complained yesterday.

To add to the general gloom, a spell of improbably warm weather ended abruptly last week and Brussels has returned to its usual state - soaked in rain.

As EU foreign ministers prepare to meet in the Belgian lakeside town of Genval this weekend, Europe's political outlook is no more cheerful. Sluggish economic growth, especially in Germany, has Europe's leaders worried that a prolonged downturn in the US could have more serious consequences for the euro-zone than most of them predicted.

READ SOME MORE

The launch of euro notes and coins on January 1st 2002 was meant to send an important signal to Europe's citizens that European integration is an attractive reality. But if an economic downturn means that Europeans have fewer euros to spend, the new currency could become tainted in the public mind.

During their meeting in Genval, the foreign ministers will discuss the debate about Europe's future that has been under way quietly for the past few months. At a summit outside Brussels in December, EU leaders will agree on the format for the next stage of the debate.

Most observers expect them to opt for a convention similar to that which produced the Declaration on Human Rights attached to the Nice Treaty last year. But there will be much wrangling about procedure and about who should take part, as well as the identity of the chairman.

When EU politicians speak about the debate, they usually refer to Ireland's rejection of the Nice Treaty and the sense of popular "disconnection" with the EU identified afterwards by the Taoiseach. But the question of what to do about the referendum result appears to have slipped off the EU agenda during the summer break.

Most of our EU partners are waiting for the Government to take the initiative, something that is unlikely to happen until the Forum on Europe gets down to business in one form or another.

The referendum result has already had one important consequence for Ireland in Europe - it has reinforced the perception that Dublin belongs firmly in the Eurosceptic camp, alongside Britain and some of the Scandinavian countries. This perception is unsubtle but senior officials maintain that it is now almost universally shared in Brussels.

Ireland could be back in the news later this month when Commission economists visit Dublin to determine whether the Government has taken enough action to counteract the inflationary impact of last December's budget. The Commission is in a difficult position, reluctant to court greater unpopularity in Ireland but determined to be seen to be consistent in its application of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines.

Much will depend on the Government's reaction to the Commission's evaluation and officials hope to avoid a return to the toxic atmosphere that followed the original reprimand.

Nerves are likely to be a little frayed all round in the coming months, not least because France and Germany both face elections next year. The French Prime Minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, is expected to use EU meetings as a campaigning platform, promoting such ideas as the adoption of the Tobin tax on international financial transactions and advancing the case for greater social protection for Europe's citizens.

The poor performance of Germany's opposition leader, Ms Angela Merkel, could mean that Germany's conservatives will choose Mr Edmund Stoiber, Bavaria's Prime Minister, to face Mr Gerhard Schr÷der in next year's election. A formidable, sophisticated politician, Mr Stoiber is a thoughtful Eurosceptic who will not shy away from making Europe's future a campaign issue.

Add to this turbulent brew uncertainty over the intentions of Italy's new right-wing government and you have a recipe for trouble ahead.

Belgium's Prime Minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, is a gifted seeker of compromise - a necessary skill in Belgium's complex system of government. He will need all the gifts at his disposal if he is to ensure that his country's presidency is a success and that the debate on Europe's future is characterised by vision rather than rancour.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times