Election Day
Good morning.
It’s the first Tuesday of November, and so it’s election day in the United States. The eyes of the world will once again be on America as voters go to the polls for the mid-term elections that are seen by supporters and opponents alike as a referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump - the most unpredictable, divisive and disruptive presidency of the modern era. It’s a big moment.
Democrats hope to retake the House of Representatives but have slimmer hopes for the Senate, where the disposition of the third of seats up for election favours the Republicans. Though he will likely claim victory no matter what the result, the truth is that losing the House would be a blow for Trump, enabling his opponents to open new investigations against him in advance of his re-election bid in two years’ time, hobbling his legislative agenda and generally impeding his presidency in a way that the rest of the world would probably cheer.
A loss for Republicans would also signal that Trump is beatable in 2020 and undermine his authority at home and abroad. If Republicans stage a late rally and hold the House - unlikely, polls say, but not impossible - Trump will justifiably took toward a second term.
Such an outcome might persuade the Democrats that they need to rethink their entire approach. But it might also scare off the sort of candidates who could beat Trump in two years' time. Either way, crucial middle-ground voters will endorse Trump or repudiate him. So the stakes are immense. We will start getting an idea in the early hours of tomorrow morning. You can follow it on irishtimes.com
Our Washington correspondent, Suzanne Lynch, has a useful guide to what, where and when.
Her report of the last day of campaigning is here, and our leader is here.
The best resource for following the results is www.realclearpolitics.com
Sausages, please
As Otto von Bismarck - or was it Francis Brennan? - once said, “Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made.” The sausage making of the abortion Bill begins in earnest this morning when the select health committee - that is, only the TDs, not the senators - begin considering 180 amendments already tabled to the Bill. The committee stage is scheduled to run for three days this week.
As we report today, Minister for Health Simon Harris has indicated he won't be taking any substantial amendments to the legislation that was published in draft form before the referendum. He will, however, take some minor and technical amendments - a refinement, if you like, from the earlier position of no amendments at all, if a relatively sensible one.
Harris will be monstered by the pro-lifers, of course, while pro-choice TDs will try to liberalise the legislation before it is even on the statute books. Both sides will claim the other is ignoring the result of the referendum. In fact, both sides are entirely entitled to propose and campaign for amendments - allowing legislators to decide on our abortion laws is exactly what the people voted for. It will be interesting to see if the tone of the exchanges has modified somewhat.
Brexit, part 47
Today is also an important day in the Kingdom of Brexitonia, where prime minister Theresa May will brief her cabinet on the state of the negotiations and - if some reports are to be believed - indicate to them the final shape of the compromise she believes she can reach with the Forces of Eurocratia.
Our lead story gives the Irish Government's perspective on this: it's open to a review of the backstop but can't be open to the UK pulling out unilaterally. Because, um, then it wouldn't be a backstop - it would only be a backdelay.
There’s another message from Dublin too: get your skates on. The British government needs to make its proposals within a week, if it wants to have a deal by Christmas, Dublin says.
The British press reporting is inconclusive, though it seems to suggest a goodish bit of briefing by Downing Street - itself a sign of some sort of confidence they can move, you’d have thought. The Brexiteers have sounded the alarum to the battle, but there’s no sign of the DUP. Have they been squared off in advance with last week’s budget bung? Who can read the mind of the inscrutable May? How much longer can all this go on? Are you losing the will to live? Expect news out of London, though.
Denis Staunton's report is here.
Best reads
Fintan O'Toole on why Caligula should be Theresa May's role model.
The Irish Times view on the state of the Labour Party.
Peter Casey feels that Ryan Tubridy was beastly to him. The poor man. Imagine being insulted like that.
Local band U2 played a concert in Dublin last night. Among the audience was President Michael D Higgins, pushing the average age up, but only by a bit
In The New York Times, David Brooks, one of a handful of commentators who opposes Donald Trump from a generally conservative viewpoint, is critical of the Democrats, while Paul Krugman, the liberal economist, says that if Trump is not derailed,the US is on the road to autocracy.
Playbook
European finance ministers meet in Brussels where Ireland is increasingly isolated in resisting the Commission proposal for a sales tax on the digital giants. Nonetheless Plucky Paschal vows to continue the resistance.
In Leinster House, the health committee begins its consideration of the abortion Bill, as indicated above. Other committees discuss Traveller accommodation and the school-building controversy.
The Dáil has the usual Tuesday routine of Leaders’ Questions, order of business for the week and Taoiseach’s questions. Also questions to the Minister for Transport Shane Ross, where Opposition TDs routinely accuse Mr Ross of not having a bull’s notion of what’s going on in his department. Wherever they get that peculiar notion from is anybody’s guess.
The Seanad is back on Mr Ross’s favourite piece of legislation, the judicial appointments Bill.
The full schedule of Oireachtas business is here www.oireachtas.ie
And that’s all for this morning. Remember, if you are reading us in Fluffy Landing, Florida, or Friendship, Maine; in Embarrass, Minnesota, or Buttzville, New Jersey; in Hurt, Virginia, or Funk, Nebraska - vote early, vote often. And America - and the rest of you - have an utterly, friskily, fruity day.
