"Anyone who says the organisation is up in arms is lying," says one Fianna Fáil source with a good knowledge of the party grassroots. "But equally, anyone who says it'll be grand and there's no problem is lying too. The truth is we don't know."
As the leadership of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael edges towards an agreement to form a government, party chiefs in both of the old rivals are turning their attention to the requirement to secure the endorsement of both party organisations for an unprecedented alliance.
Fianna Fáil has a requirement for a special ardfheis, in which every member of the party is entitled to vote, while under Fine Gael’s rules, a special delegate conference must be held to ratify the decision.
Both processes must be in doubt given the restrictions on public meetings because of coronavirus, and there is talk in the two parties about organising postal votes to ratify a programme for government, if one is agreed. But however their consent is sought, will the party organisations buy into a coalition agreement with the old enemy?
The most discordant voices have come from within Fianna Fáil, and even those close to party leader Micheál Martin acknowledge that the party is deeply divided on the question of coalition.
Martin faced a mini-revolt at his most recent parliamentary party meeting, where reservations about his determination to do a deal with Fine Gael came from quarters outside the usual suspects. Individual TDs and councillors have voiced opposition to the idea, while Ógra, the party’s youth wing, has also said it is against the idea. A number of councillors also oppose a deal with Fine Gael.
But is opposition widespread throughout the organisation?
“To be honest, I think there is sort of an acceptance that it’s going to happen,” says a senior member of the party’s local organisation in a Border county. He has spoken to “loads of people” about it and says that most people aren’t exactly in love with the idea. But they think it is something they will have to do.
“As a party we can’t have another term in opposition. We can’t have another election. So . . . there aren’t any other options,” he says. “If I was asked to vote for it, I would.”
Sinn Féin factor
For several party sources, the fierce opposition to a deal with Sinn Féin is a motivating factor in accepting a deal with Fine Gael.
Four years ago the Fianna Fáil grassroots was pretty unanimous in its opposition to the idea of a coalition with Fine Gael, then much-touted in some quarters and in parts of the media. At that time they made clear their opposition. But several sources at all levels of the party organisation say the situation is different now – not least because of the starkly altered political situation.
Speaking in Leinster House last week, some TDs thought that while the organisation didn’t like it much, it would accept the party had to form a government now, and if that is with Fine Gael, then so be it.
But others are less sure. One person in regular contact with a variety of activists says that a lot of the organisation “is thinking about it”.
“They’re open to having a conversation about it,” he says. “It won’t be easy. It’s nobody’s ideal situation. But they’re experienced political observers. They can read the political landscape.”
What of Fine Gael? Sources at various levels of the organisation mirror some of the sentiments expressed by Fianna Fáilers: they don’t like the idea, they wish there was another option for them, but they think that a coalition agreement is likely to be concluded.
One experienced TD says the push is on from within the organisation and outside it to get a new government in place, and says it’s obvious it will have to be a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil deal. “They don’t like it,” he says of the organisation’s attitude, “but they realise we have to do it. So they want us to get on with it.”
