The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll shows a surge in support for Fianna Fáil as voter confidence in Independents is rattled. Fianna Fáil has jumped to 33 per cent (a gain of nine points since the general election), while Independents/others have slumped eight points to 22 per cent.

On 24 per cent, support for Fine Gael has declined two points. Surprisingly, Sinn Féin (on 16 per cent) has benefited, but not significantly, from the decline in Independents, registering two points higher than its general election result.

Labour, under new leadership, has drifted lower, down two points to 5 per cent.

Fieldwork for this latest poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, by which time Brexit had been playing in the media for 10 days.

It is impossible to avoid the temptation to link the swing towards a more cohesive opposition, and away from a fragmented one, to the uncertainty created by the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

It would also be foolish to stop at Brexit in the search for an explanation for why a swathe of voters has swapped Independents for Fianna Fáil. We have, after all, been living with uncertainty since the Government was formed.

Thin line

The thin line this Government walks every day was never more apparent than at the time of interviewing for this latest poll, when Independent members of the Cabinet were making headlines with their decision to vote against the advice of the Attorney General and for Mick Wallace’s fatal foetal abnormalities Bill.

Independents are mavericks in opposition but can cause mayhem in government, and the precariousness of the current arrangement is not giving voters the added comfort they need in a time of uncertainty.

Whatever the reason, the figures show a decline in satisfaction with how the Government is running the country, down two points to 31 per cent.

Most notably, Independents and Others (including the smaller parties) have collectively declined to 22 per cent, having recorded 30 per cent support in the recent election.

Perhaps some voters are questioning the wisdom of electing Independents if their role is to extend beyond local politics and into national government.

While Independents may be the lightning rod for voter frustration with the lack of Government decisiveness, Fine Gael does not emerge unscathed. The party has lost two points since the election, down to 24 per cent support.

Eaten bread is soon forgotten, and Fine Gael will be judged by the wider electorate on its performance in Government and not on the right or wrong of going into government. In this context, the fortunes of Fine Gael could be in the hands of Independents. It was never going to be easy.

It has been easier for Fianna Fáil. The party is now the most popular party by a distance, the main Opposition party by a distance, and the party with the most popular leader (Micheál Martin is up eight points to 43 per cent) by a distance.

Fianna Fáil is proving to be a port in a storm, for older voters in particular. The party’s largest gains have been among 50-64 year olds (up 11 points since a pre-election poll to 34 per cent) and 65+ year olds (up 26 points to 48 per cent).

Modest ground

Sinn Féin has made modest ground since the election. However, today’s poll will be seen as a lost opportunity. Between 2011 and 2016, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil jostled for position as the leading opposition party, with neither party able to extend the advantage beyond eight points. In different times a drop in the Independent vote would have helped Sinn Féin close the gap on Fianna Fáil. On this occasion the wind is blowing in Fianna Fáil’s direction, allowing the party to open up a gap of 17 points on Sinn Féin.

On the plus side for Sinn Féin, today’s result consolidates its position as the number one challenger to the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael duopoly. Also, satisfaction with Gerry Adams’s leadership has moved up four points to 31 per cent.

While it is very early days in Brendan Howlin’s leadership, new management has not halted the slide in Labour’s vote that began in 2010. From a peak of 33 per cent, support for Labour has retreated to just 5 per cent in this latest poll. Satisfaction with his leadership is at 26 per cent, with 37 per cent dissatisfied and 37 per cent no opinion. Ultimately success will be measured by how many voters currently with no opinion form a positive view of his leadership in the months ahead.

Smaller parties

The fear for Labour is that it will get lost in the tail of smaller parties, drowned out by policies and personalities and struggling to be heard above the din. Labour is only marginally ahead of the Green Party (4 per cent), with AAA (2 per cent) and Social Democrats (2 per cent) not far behind.

Combined, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have 57 per cent of the vote, making today’s poll the most conservative since 2009. All across Europe and in the US polls are reflecting a degree of voter disillusionment and anxiety. In some countries parties on the extreme right are benefiting, while in others voters are looking to the left.

In Ireland we appear to be drifting back to the centre and to the familiar, a defensive move that perhaps reflects the external nature of the threat.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will not waste a good crisis.