There is overwhelming consensus among Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators that Taoiseach Micheál Martin will move to the tánaiste’s office in December rather than step down as party leader.
The view represents a dramatic turnaround in the standing of Mr Martin among his colleagues. Twelve months ago most Fianna Fáil parliamentarians were of the opinion that he would have no choice but to resign this year ahead of Fine Gael taking over the position of taoiseach.
The Irish Times spoke to 20 of the party’s TDs and Senators on Monday to seek their response to the latest The Irish Times/Ipsos poll, which last week showed a rise of three percentage points in the party’s support and also found Mr Martin to be the State’s most popular party leader.
All of those who spoke to The Irish Times stated that they did not see any change in the party leadership occurring this year or early next year.
However, their views were divided on whether or not Mr Martin would lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election, due to take place in 2025. More of his colleagues said it was likely the party would have a new leader at that stage, but sentiment among those contacted was less decisive on a leadership change than they were previously.
Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien, Senator Timmy Dooley and Minister of State Robert Troy all stated categorically that Mr Martin would remain as party leader for the foreseeable future.
“In my opinion he will be tánaiste in December and the timing of his departure as leader should be set by him,” said Mr Troy.
Mr Dooley said he believed Mr Martin would lead the party into the next elections. “I think his personal rating is strong and will help us closer to the elections.”
Several pointed to a parliamentary party meeting in Cavan last autumn as a turning point as well as the return of “in-person” meetings as Covid-19 restrictions eased, which diffused some of the internal tension that emerged during the pandemic. Others pointed to Mr Martin growing into the role.
Senator Malcolm Byrne said: “He has shown real leadership on Covid and on Ukraine. He is not afraid of the tough and long-term decisions and won’t go down the populist route.”
Most believe Mr Martin will be replaced before the next election. “He cannot lead us into the next general election even if he’s God,” said one backbencher.
Another TD said: “I think he intends to lead us into the election, whether he will or not. I get a bit uneasy if he goes back as tánaiste and we have a couple of bad polls.”
Transition
A TD based in the east said: “He’s in his 12th year as leader now. He will be tánaiste but there needs to be an orderly transition before the election.”
Another said: “I personally don’t believe he’ll lead us into the next election. I’d hope there won’t be any acrimony when changing leadership.”
A TD from the south said the recent poll findings had greatly increased the chances of Mr Martin staying on as leader.
Another said: “Things can change quickly in politics. A year ago I think the expectation was that he would step down at the time of the transition, but I wouldn’t bet against him leading into the next election.”
A parliamentarian based in the east said: “His poll numbers are good but again Mary Harney was the most popular leader and the Progressive Democrats were only on 5 per cent. So it’s delivery, delivery, delivery. At this point I don’t see him going anywhere yet, and I don’t yet see a strong line-up ready to replace him. Again, that’s yet.”
