Good morning - Sometimes a poll can surprise you. A party, government or leader who has been on the receiving end of punishing media coverage can prove surprisingly popular. The press can diagnose problems that just do not matter to punters, who may be happily distracted with other matters. One thinks of the buoyant Bertie Ahern, who remained bulletproof even as tribunals rumbled on.
The poll in today’s Irish Times is not one of those. It confirms what many hacks, political and journalistic, already felt in their waters. Confidence in, and support for, the Government is bleeding away, with just 45 per cent believing it is doing a good job on the pandemic, a drop of 13 per cent.
There is not much of a silver lining to be found for the Government, except perhaps for a Green glimmer, with that party up two points to 6 per cent. For Fianna Fáil, the outlook is decidedly grim, with the majority saying both Micheál Martin (56 per cent) and Stephen Donnolly (52 per cent) are doing a bad job on the pandemic.
The party overall is down three points to 14 per cent, and its main Coalition partner, Fine Gael, fares worse (although it has further to fall), down five points to 30 per cent. There is bad news for Leo Varadkar, with the Tánaiste’s personal approval rating tumbling from 65 per cent in October – before his leaking scandal - to 52 per cent today.
However, he remains the most popular of the leaders, and he has a better score for handling the pandemic, of 50 per cent.
So, what is going on? The poll supports the theory the Government has “lost the dressing room”. The last Irish Times poll was taken in the wake of Nphet’s bombshell recommendation to move the country to Level 5, which marked a profound gear shift in the Irish experience of the pandemic. Since then, the news has been pretty unrelentingly bad – save for a break for a “meaningful Christmas”. Unfortunately, nobody quite grasped the true meaning of last Christmas until it was too late.
Ironically, after the erratic start culminating in the conflagration of Golfgate, this Government has more or less avoided true, full-blown scandals since the summer.
The controversy over Séamus Woulfe’s appointment threatened to ignite, but despite plenty of harrumphing, it ultimately receded. The Leo Varadkar leak controversy is still smouldering away like a pile of fissile material, and while that has (and may again) threaten the stability of this Government, it has its roots in the last government. It is more toxic for the Tánaiste personally, and his leadership, than for this executive.
What is more likely happening is that voters are profoundly disenchanted with the Coalition’s brand of error-prone, uninspiring government, characterised by lacklustre communications and lacking in unity, vision or purpose.
Worn down by lockdown, voters are not minded to reward the Government for much of anything at all. It will be particularly galling for some in power to see Ireland’s arch-technocrat, and sometime Government nemesis, Dr Tony Holohan enjoying a phenomenal 83 per cent approval rating for his handling of the pandemic.
If the Government is looking for saving graces, it might find a glimmer of hope in the fact that its voters are not deserting for Sinn Féin on the evidence of this poll. Instead, the Government’s support seems to be clinging to the traditional beneficiaries of voter apathy – Independents and “don’t knows”.
In the long run (presuming this Government has a long run), they may come back, rather than vote Sinn Féin. That party will doubtless find solace in its consistently high ratings, which continue today. An upturn in the Government’s fortunes would likely turn on there being tangible progress on vaccination, and the safe reopening of more parts of the economy and society.
Political editor Pat Leahy's lead is here, and his analysis is here.
Jennifer Bray’s write-up of the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting shows that view the voters are losing confidence in the Government is now widely shared on the Government benches, with former minister for rural affairs Michael Ring delivering a stinging criticism, saying the people are “sick and tired” of a Government that has failed on testing, vaccines and communications.
Meanwhile, former junior minister John Paul Phelan rounded on the Taoiseach, and, completing a trio of ex-ministerial critics, former minister for social protection Regina Doherty warned Fine Gael was in danger of losing the trust of the people.
Elsewhere, Harry McGee reports Micheál Martin has been dangling dates to his parliamentary party .
Our front page line-up is completed by security and crime editor Conor Lally, who reports that a record number of Garda members were suspended from duty last year as Garda Commissioner Drew Harris shakes up force discipline. Members were suspended over a range of allegations, including sexual misconduct; drugs, corrupt or criminal misconduct; and even social media activity.
Human rights watchdog takes Government to task
There is more stinging criticism for how this Government and its predecessor have formulated pandemic policy.
The State’s human rights watchdog has hit out, saying how laws and rules have been made, enforced and communicated raises “significant human rights and equality concerns”. There’s plenty of criticism from the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission to go around, with Nphet copping a load too.
However, the main flak is reserved for the Government, which, the commission says, has played fast and loose, presenting public health advice as law, paying lip service to parliamentary oversight and allowing the targeting of measures at disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. More on that here.
Best reads
Alongside Pat's analysis, Ipsos MRBI managing director Damien Loscher writes that the tide is firmly out for the Government as Sinn Féin consolidates its new standing and is "utterly dominant" among the under 35s.
On vaccines, Cliff Taylor looks at how the jabs rollout could impact day-to-day life.
In her latest dispatches from Brussels, Naomi O'Leary argues the outlook for vaccinations is better than it seems for much of the EU – including Ireland.
Meanwhile, Jennifer Bray parses the latest Nphet letter here.
Beyond our shores, Stephen Starr has an interesting piece on how politics, energy and science combined to give Democrats a losing hand in the former industrial heartlands of the American Midwest.
A jarring revelation for millennials such as your dear correspondent to awake to, as Finn McRedmond writes that we have been tossed on the generational slag pile of cultural irrelevancy.
Playbook
The long and painful birth of mandatory hotel quarantine continues in the lower house, with the action kicking off at 12pm.
That is followed by Leo Varadkar taking Leaders’ Questions from Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Regional Group and the Rural Independent Group at midday, and then questions on promised legislation, before hotel quarantine is back with a bang shortly after lunch.
Topical issues is scheduled for shortly after half past five, after which the Dáil adjourns.
Covid restrictions mean there is no sitting of the Seanad, while the committees on social protection, European affairs, climate action, media, and transport and communications are meeting virtually in private.
