It was January. Outside it was winter, but inside the Mullingar hotel the mood was so sunny you had to wear sunglasses.

Reading back on reports of that pre-election Labour Party conference now, it is astonishing how blind they were to the raging hurricane rushing their way.

You see this often with parties in government. The evidence is all pointing in one direction. Poor opinion polls. Frothy-lipped anger on radio shows. Rage on the doorsteps. But the bubble insulates you from that.

It makes you believe they are wrong. You believe somehow there will be a miraculous late turn, and people will realise just how right and wise and brilliant you are.

Even vastly experienced, savvy operators like Brendan Howlin called it wrong that time.

At that January conference, Howlin recalled Eamon de Valera’s famous put-down of his party from almost a century ago: “Labour must wait”. Not this time, said Howlin, arguing the party would go back into government for a second term.

It didn’t happen. Labour was thrown right to the back of the queue. In the fallout, there was one unexpected turn-up for the books.

Howlin himself had long ago resigned himself personally to being one who must wait. His own opportunity to become leader seemed to have passed him by – he had not even contested the last two races.

By dint of the general election trouncing, he found himself thrust into the leadership role. Sure, it required a bit of ruthlessness; the other six TDs blocking Alan Kelly’s desire to stand against him.

It also required the party to ditch the ludicrous idea of going back into government and trying to stage its recovery from there. If they had done that, they would be going into the same classification as the corncrake.

Fire in the belly

Howlin has been leader for six months now. “Ah, Mr Three Per Cent,” said a politician when I said I was interviewing him.

Sure the party is in the doldrums, but anyone who has seen the Wexford TD in action of late will know there’s fire in the belly, but an acknowledgment of the new realities.

“I am absolutely determined to lead the recovery. I would not have taken it on otherwise. I have the capacity and energy to see it through. I have proven in six months that I have both of those things.

“Having said that, this is not the traditional way for a party. I see my 11 parliamentary colleagues as co-equal leaders; all of them have jobs to do. So do the 50 councillors. So do our members.

“I had a good understanding of what the job involved. I had no illusions and never believed it would be an automatic flip back. There was a great deal of disillusionment in our own ranks and our supporter base. They need to be listened to and their concerns need to be assuaged.

“What we needed was a reaffirmation of the important role of a social democratic party in terms of the future shaping of the country. I believe in that myself passionately and that was a a good starting point.

“We are not Renua or the PDs. We are the oldest party in the State with deep roots and a solid support base. I am determined to win that back.”

Howlin's early months in the job would be familiar to anyone who followed what Enda Kenny or Micheál Martin did when their parties were at their lowest ebb. He has visited 15 constituencies and is engaged in a "listening exercise".

The party has already raked through the ashes of February. A review panel recommended constitutional changes for a smaller party, including structural changes and more input from members.

Howlin says the party has recruited 1,000 new members since the election.

He says there are two categories of support in future. They are active members and the large group of people who “are social democratic thinkers”.

“I am optimistic. We have strong Labour Women, we have strong Labour youth. The components are strong. Policy can’t be formulated by the parliamentary party alone. We are too small in numbers. We need to empower party membership.”

It's a crowded field though. As former Labour strategist Ed Brophy notes: "The bigger problem is a structural one. The conventional wisdom is that what people expressed in February was a desire for more fairness and social democracy.

"That's our space. Fianna Fáil has definitely moved there rhetorically. Fine Gael has as well, bizarrely, even though it's not what their voters want. So has Sinn Féin in some respects."

The Alphabet Alliance with its far-left message has been trending up. Brophy points out why.

"Their message is clear. Everyone else has gone to another space. They have some very articulate people and they understand the power of spectacle, such as sitting in the Dáil with Repeal jumpers. They are tapping into what Bernie Sanders did in the US and Jeremy Corbyn in the UK."

But, like Howlin, he does not believe Labour should go in that direction, as it will take it away from its core beliefs.

Howlin sets out his idea of the future for the party. “It has an analysis of the left and is progressive. It wants to implement solutions.

“I don’t think that compromise is some kind of a sellout. You argue the toss with other people. You reach a progressive consensus to the best of your ability.”

Realism versus idealism

Intrinsic in that is a belief in Labour in government. He still gamely fights the good fight on the record of the last government.

“People wanted recovery but the pain of the journey of recovery was very jarring for people. The simple solutions offered by the ultra left was there was some kind of magic solution.

"Gerry Adams told the Dáil the Government should tell the troika to get lost and take their money with them. That was tried out in Greece. Every cent left the country and economy was left in tatters.

“What distinguishes us from ultra left is we are realists in terms of what the type of economy we have can deliver. We do not make ludicrous promises to bring down the capitalist system and expect something better at the end of it.

“We want to find solutions. We want to give capacity to people to be the best they can be. If they are ill, they can get access to the best health services, and can get the best access to education no matter where they come from.”

The party has struggled to be heard. Howlin and his colleagues bristled when RTÉ excluded the party from the debate on the night of the budget in October, choosing the far left over it.

Its TDs and Senators complain it doesn’t get the same airtime as the Alphabet Alliance, even though it’s a bigger party.

There have been some small wins. The party came up with a novel budget proposal which threw everything available into spending on services and welfare, nothing on tax breaks.

Howlin himself has had purchase with his argument for earlier and wider engagement on the Lansdowne Road pay deal. This week in the Dáil he also forced Enda Kenny to dissociate himself from Shane Ross’s attack on the judiciary.

What next?

Other parties have talked about two-term strategies to recover. But Howlin is big on consensus.

So he does not rule out any – the Greens, the Social Democrats, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin, although he criticises the latter for being a "sectarian" party and not of the true left.

There is one absolute exception: the Alphabet Alliance.

“I would find it difficult to forge any working relationship with the AAA/PBP. Their stated purpose is to destroy us. Eliminate us, and the support base for working people is diminished.”

For a while the party braced itself for a quick election but that threat has receded.

Howlin contends the Government has no capacity to do anything and will not last for long. Usually a party will use the next local elections as a springboard for recovery. Labour won’t have that comfort this time.

“To be completely honest, we are not going to have a 40 constituency strategy in the next election. We need to identify winnable seats. We have very fine candidates who are narrowly defeated. And there are new people. We have a good cohort of quality candidates.”

Labour were in government until nine months ago and can’t very well strike an out-and-out oppositionist stance. Positioning the party on key issues has been tricky.

“We went into government putting our country before party. We are not going to move away from that now. Where Government is doing things we agree with we will support them.”

The party’s next conference is next April.

No sunglasses required.