Prof Mary McAleese is the clear favourite to win the presidential election on October 30th, according to the first Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll in the campaign.
Mrs Mary Banotti MEP is ahead of the anti-nuclear campaigner Ms Adi Roche, who has been somewhat damaged by the publicity surrounding her entry into the race.
The opinion poll shows Prof McAleese with a first preference vote of 35 per cent, Ms Banotti 23 per cent, Ms Roche 22 per cent and Ms Rosemary Scallon - Dana - 7 per cent. The level of undecided voters is 13 per cent.
The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State last Saturday, before the head of Victim Support, Mr Derek Nally, was nominated to contest the election. His name did not appear on the sample ballot paper.
The main finding of the poll is that the Fianna Fail candidate, Prof McAleese, would win the presidential election on the third count. If the undecided voters are excluded, Prof McAleese wins 40 per cent support; Ms Banotti 27 per cent; Ms Roche 25 per cent and Dana 8 per cent on the first count.
Some 13 per cent of voters believe that the publicity surrounding the candidacy of Ms Roche has encouraged them to vote against her. A total of 70 per cent of voters believes that the publicity has made no difference to their voting intentions, while 11 per cent feel more encouraged to vote for her.
The most surprising feature of the poll, however, is the level of cross-party voting in the presidential campaign. Prof McAleese is drawing more support from PD than from Fianna Fail voters. Just over half of Fianna Fail supporters - 51 per cent - intends to vote for her. She gets support from 22 per cent of Fine Gael voters, 15 per cent of Labour voters, 56 per cent of Progressive Democrats voters and 27 per cent of voters described as "others".
The Fine Gael candidate, Ms Banotti, is in a somewhat similar position within her own party. She is backed by less than half, 49 per cent, of Fine Gael voters, 12 per cent of Fianna Fail voters, 27 per cent of Labour voters, 22 per cent of PD voters and 18 per cent of others.
Just over two-fifths of Labour voters - 42 per cent - supports the party's candidate, Ms Roche. She has support from 21 per cent of Fianna Fail voters, 18 per cent of Fine Gael voters, 22 per cent of PD voters and 24 per cent of others.
The transfer pattern in the poll is particularly interesting, given that there will be five candidates in the contest.
Prof McAleese and Ms Roche would be the principal beneficiaries of Dana's transfers, benefiting equally from them. Prof McAleese would benefit more than Ms Banotti from Ms Roche's transfers. She would also receive substantially more transfers from Ms Banotti than Ms Roche would receive. In the unlikely event of Prof McAleese being eliminated, Ms Banotti would be the main beneficiary of her transfers, receiving more of her votes than Ms Roche.
The cross-party nature of the first preference and transfer votes is a matter that is likely to be considered by party strategists as the presidential campaign develops over the next few weeks.
Ms Banotti, an MEP for Dublin, leads in Dublin, with 33 per cent support compared to 31 per cent for Prof McAleese and 15 per cent for Ms Roche.
Prof McAleese has 40 per cent in Leinster, 34 per cent in Munster and 37 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
