So, you want a united Ireland? Of course. Soon? Eh, not really. Want to pay for it? Nope. Want unionists involved? Sure. Want to change the anthem or the flag? Not a chance. How much do you really care about it? Let me get back to you on that.
The findings of today's latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll on attitudes in this State to a united Ireland throw some cold water on the idea that unity is an idea whose time has now come.
The data published today suggests the contrary, in fact: that it is a popular idea whose time has not yet come. It also suggests that it is an idea that has not been remotely worked out in the minds of voters.
Put bluntly, whatever about the likelihood of a referendum on unity being held, and being passed, in Northern Ireland, those who wish to bring about a united Ireland have a lot of work to do to convince voters in the South that it should be a priority here.
Asked about their preferred timing of any referendum and just 15 per cent of respondents said they wanted to see it now
And for all the gathering drumbeats about unity and the apparently growing sense here and abroad that it is an historic inevitability in the near future, perhaps the public ambivalence is not all that surprising.
Since even before the foundation of the State, attitudes in what became the Republic have been deeply ambiguous about northern Ireland.
Famously, it hardly featured in the treaty debates which began 100 years ago this month; the Oath of Allegiance was more a cause of the Civil War than partition.
DeValera’s Constitution – overwhelmingly endorsed by the voters of the Free State in 1937 – laid claim to the North and then assured everyone this was just for show. As the historian John A Murphy – and many others – have pointed out, Dev always prioritised the 26 counties over the six.
With the advent of the Troubles in Northern Ireland in the late 1960s and 1970s, the priority of Dublin Governments was firstly to protect the State they governed, and only secondly to intercede on behalf of Northern nationalists.
With the Anglo-Irish Agreement and then the Belfast Agreement of 1998, the policy of successive Irish governments was peace first, unity later. Maybe much later.
Tradition
It seems we are the worthy inheritors of that tradition today. While a strong majority of 62 per cent say that they would vote for a united Ireland, with just 16 per cent opposed, it is clear from the rest of the data that this apparently overwhelming support masks a range of quite conflicted attitudes.
Asked about their preferred timing of any referendum and just 15 per cent of respondents said they wanted to see it now. This is almost the same as those who want to see it more than 10 years into the future (16 per cent) and only a bit more than those who never want to see it (13 per cent). The largest group by far is those who want to see a referendum in the next 10 years (42 per cent).
But how much do they want to see it? How big a priority is a united Ireland for voters?
Only a small minority (20 per cent) say that it is “very important” and a “priority” for them. A greater proportion (24 per cent) say that it is “not at all important” for them. And a clear majority – 52 per cent – say that it is “not very important but I would like to see it someday”. This sounds like the voice of middle Ireland. Sure, we want to see a united Ireland eventually but what’s your hurry? Haven’t we enough to be doing?
But perhaps the most revealing data today is when voters were asked their views about a series of changes to facilitate a united Ireland, or the consequences of unity and if they would be prepared to accept them.
The results show that large majorities of people are opposed to many of the things that might reasonably be thought to make a united Ireland more acceptable to unionists, or at least to signal to them that their identity would be both respected and become an integral part of a new state.
Over three-quarters of people (77 per cent) say they would not accept a new flag; 72 per cent would not accept a new National Anthem; 71 per cent would not accept rejoining the commonwealth. This sounds less like a new shared country than assimilation into the existing one.
Closer ties
A slim majority of voters who expressed a preference are not averse to “closer ties to the UK” after unity – 47 per cent saying they are in favour, with 42 per cent opposed – while the prospect of having “unionist politicians as part of the government in Dublin” is also narrowly favoured, by 44 per cent to 42 per cent.
But none of this feels like a willingness to make a new unified state more British. And those majorities are narrow, remember – there are a lot of people who neither want closer ties to the UK nor unionists in government here.
Nor are voters willing to accept any costs that might come with unity.
There is strong opposition to higher taxes, with almost four out of five voters (79 per cent) saying they would not accept it.
Only a quarter of Sinn Féin supporters want a referendum immediately
The same proportion of voters is opposed to having less money for public services. Any campaign for unity in a referendum here will have to answer clearly the questions about the costs.
Organisations campaigning for unity may understandably interpret today’s poll findings as underlining the need for a debate about what unity might mean, perhaps in the shape of a citizens’ assembly or other forum, and what its consequences, costs, processes and timeline might be.
It is certainly true that none of these questions –- not to mind the answers to them – have been remotely understood to date. But there is little evidence today that there is any urgency among the public to do so.
Core objective
And what of Sinn Féin, the party which is dedicated to achieving unity as a core objective?
Examining the responses to the questions among Sinn Féin voters is fascinating. Only a quarter (26 per cent) of Sinn Féin supporters want a referendum immediately. Just over a third of them (36 per cent) regard it as “very important” and a “priority” – 47 per cent are more wishy-washy; not very important, but they’d like to see it someday.
But what is also striking is that Sinn Féin voters are the most opposed to those measures – on the flag, anthem and joining the commonwealth – that might appeal to unionists.
As the debate proceeds those most in favour of a united Ireland will face the question: what are you prepared to do bring it about?
