Ulster Unionist Party leader Mike Nesbitt has taken a bold gamble in the Northern Ireland Assembly election that will be judged brave and wise, or brave but catastrophic, once the votes are counted after March 2nd.
Last weekend, he said he would be casting his second preference on the ballot paper for the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) candidate running in East Belfast where he lives who has the fine Irish name of Seamus de Faoite.
Electorally, Nesbitt’s number two vote will not make a milligram of difference as de Faoite has not got a hope, but Nesbitt’s move breaks new ground in the sectarian mould of Northern Irish politics.
In last May’s election, the SDLP won 141 first preferences in this solidly Unionist and Alliance constituency, and that situation is not going to change much no matter what Nesbitt does.
No doubt de Faoite will welcome the vote, although as Tuesday's Irish News reported he was critical last year of Nesbitt, saying he was "incapable of action" and that it's "all just about him and the UUP".
Over in Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) headquarters, Nesbitt's commitment to transferring preferences to the SDLP was music to its ears. At last here was an announcement that would take the focus from the "cash for ash" fiasco – for a while at least.
Meanwhile, the UUP did not speak with a united vote. In Newry and Armagh, Danny Kennedy called on voters to transfer down the line on a pro-union ticket.
Rosemary Barton of the UUP in Fermanagh South Tyrone – who like Kennedy faces a solid nationalist bloc in her constituency – did the same. So, too, did Harold McKee in South Down.
Internal divisions
The internal divisions added to the DUP sense of satisfaction, giving it an opportunity to deflect attention away away from the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) controversy – one that could yet cost Northern Irish taxpayers close to £500 million (€589 million).
DUP leader Arlene Foster said that she was not surprised that UUP candidates "won't be cutting off their noses just to spite their faces" because they just might need transfers from other unionists to get elected.
All through Monday Nesbitt held to his line, notwithstanding the furore his commitment triggered. He argued, as he did again later, that it would have been hypocritical of him to support a DUP candidate in East Belfast such as outgoing speaker Robin Newton in whom he has no confidence. Nesbitt lives in east Belfast but is standing in neighbouring Strangford.
On Tuesday, journalists trooped to the UUP manifesto launch in the Park Avenue Hotel in east Belfast to hear if he would beat a retreat, or qualify his offer so much that it would make it meaningless. But no, he held his ground.
He had no regrets, he said, while acknowledging that for some candidates their constituency dynamic required them to urge votes for pro-union candidates.
“What I am trying to achieve is a stretch for some people; it’s not going to be easy, and if it was we would have done it by now,” he said.
“Those are the principles that I believe in, and it doesn’t surprise me that people are poking fun or putting question marks against my motivation and all the rest – that’s life, that’s politics. I am not deflected, I am determined. Northern Ireland deserves better.”
And he quoted Lord Edward Carson when he urged "a government not for sections or factions but for all".
But even citing the father of Ulster Unionism was not sufficient to prevent Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon UUP councillor Carol Black from resigning Tuesday, complaining that the "whole ethos of the party has been destroyed".
Apprehensive
So far, she is the only UUP politician to jump ship. Talking to some senior UUP figures and candidates at the manifesto launch on Tuesday the mood was apprehensive, but still nobody was bad-mouthing Nesbitt.
The view, so far at least, appeared to be “let Mike test the water, we’ll do our own thing”.
Still, it was a significant gamble for Nesbitt to take. It recalled a visit by former South African minister and senior African National Congress member Sathyandranath Ragunanan "Mac" Maharaj to Belfast in 1996. This was at a time when politicians were struggling to create the conditions that would lead to the Belfast Agreement two years later.
Big progress, Mac Maharaj advised, was when politicians were “prepared to stray beyond where their constituency stands, and then bring that constituency along afterwards”.
The question now is will unionists and others join Nesbitt in that daring step beyond the comfortable.
He canvassed in the overwhelmingly unionist town of Newtownards on Monday and said while there was some criticism on the doorsteps most people welcomed his comments: “The reaction was much more positive than negative.”
And while some in the DUP might try to portray his comments as undermining the union, he said that the “status of Northern Ireland was under zero threat” and should not be relevant to the election campaign.
“I wanted to send out a signal that it does not have to be the same old, same old everywhere,” he said.
Nesbitt (59) is a Cambridge graduate and former UTV six o’clock news anchor. He took over as UUP leader in 2012. He is a politician who can be impulsive and as a former journalist knows how to execute a sound bite.
In the 2015 Westminster elections he agreed a pact with the DUP covering four constituencies that the SDLP deplored as a “sectarian carve-up”. Yet, he has tried to go beyond Orange and Green.
Standing ovation
Last year, he invited SDLP leader Colum Eastwood to speak at the UUP conference. Eastwood got a standing ovation. That is when Nesbitt said, "Vote me, you get Colum. Vote Colum, you get me."
Later, he decided with Eastwood to absent his party from the last Executive and to go into formal opposition at Stormont.
Some in his party remarked a little sourly how Eastwood was careful in his reciprocation of the number two vote offered to de Faoite. The SDLP leader urged supporters to back candidates who wanted “change”.
The UUP had 16 seats in the last 108-seat Assembly and is standing 24 candidates for this forthcoming 90-seat Assembly. The DUP had 38 seats. Nesbitt believes the spotlight will return the DUP and “cash for ash” before voting.
"Every single vote for the Ulster Unionist Party will be a step closer bringing an end to a decade of arrogance, incompetence and even the allegations of corruption under Sinn Féin and the DUP," said Nesbitt.
“This is both a referendum on how the Executive handled the RHI debacle, and the last 10 years.”
It seems fanciful, but Nesbitt argues that the public’s desire for change and its anger over RHI will ensure that the UUP will emerge as the largest unionist party and in line for the First Minister’s post.
People want, he believes, to move away from tribal “them’uns and us’uns” politics. The DUP and Sinn Féin, he says, engage only in dog whistle politics to hide their record in office.
If Nesbitt’s brave move works he will be lauded as an inspirational and visionary leader. If it doesn’t he will face a serious postmortem.
