The continued provision of healthcare, education and other essential services could be threatened by January if current Covid-19 trends continue, public health officials have warned.
Should the present pattern of transmission of the virus continue, there is "every reason" there could be significant challenges even in early January that could threaten non-Covid healthcare and other services, according to chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan.
The virus is spreading throughout the country, in all age groups, Dr Holohan told a National Public Health Emergency Team briefing.
“We are now getting reports of substantial outbreaks in social settings, including workplace settings, Christmas parties and funerals. I cannot stress enough how important it is to limit your interactions now. The consequences of not doing so will be exponential growth in January, a substantial increase in hospitalisations and risk to life.”
The five-day moving average is now 387 cases per day, he said.
The reproduction number, a measure of how many other people a case infects, now stands at between 1.1 and 1.3, according to Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the Nphet epidemiological modelling advisory group.
Festive threats
“We are particularly concerned about older people and vulnerable adults, who have protected themselves through the second wave, and are now at risk during the festive season.”
If this continues, there could be 700-1,200 cases a day by the second week in January, “if not sooner”, he said.
Prof Nolan said there were “very strong and concerning” early-warning signs of a renewed increase in the level of transmission of the virus.
The number of patients in hospital was decreasing only slowly while ICU numbers were not falling.
Demand for testing is increasing as is the positivity rate, up to almost 4 per cent.
The trend in cases is “worryingly similar” to what occurred in September, he said, with a growth rate of 1.5-2 per cent.
The figures are a clear warning that what people were doing in the first week of December was “too much, and we need to stop now”.
Danger of surge
“We are now at high risk of a surge in January with older and vulnerable people a key concern, but this is not inevitable,” he concluded.
Dr Holohan confirmed Nphet had made recommendations to the Government following its meeting on Thursday, which will be considered by the Cabinet next Tuesday.
He said Taoiseach Micheál Martin had rung him on Thursday and he had provided him with a “general understanding” of the recommendations made by Nphet.
He declined to say what the recommendations were, saying it was important to allow time and space for the deliberative process to take place.
A further three deaths of Covid-19 patients were reported by the team. This brings to 2,143 the total number of deaths in the pandemic.
Nphet also reported 484 confirmed cases of the disease, bringing to 77,678 the total number of cases in the Republic.
Of the new cases, 150 are in Dublin, 45 in Wexford, 40 in Cork, 32 in Donegal, 29 in Limerick, with the remaining 188 cases spread across 20 other counties.
On Thursday afternoon, there were 200 Covid-19 patients in hospital, including 31 in ICU. There were 30 additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours.
The national 14-day incidence has risen to 94.2 cases per 100,000 people. Donegal has the highest county incidence at 246.9 followed by Louth at 207.9. Clare has the lowest incidence at 25.2.
