The country is facing a “critical window” over the next eight weeks, which could see it either face or avoid a fourth wave of Covid-19, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has said.
The Covid-19 situation at present was “stable but precarious”, as the country hovers around 500 new cases a day, Prof Philip Nolan, chair of Nphet’s modelling group, told a press briefing.
“If we were to have low or medium increase in close social contact from the 5th April, it is highly likely that would precipitate a fourth wave of the disease,” Prof Nolan said.
Hospital Report
The current Level 5 Covid-19 restrictions were due to expire on April 5th. On Tuesday, they were extended until April 12th before several measures are gradually eased.
Prof Nolan said Ireland was only a number of weeks away from vaccinating enough people to “cut off” the opportunities for the virus to transmit widely.
If social mixing could be kept down at current levels until the end of May, the risk posed by Covid-19 would fall substantially, he said.
Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, said the vaccination rollout would “virtually eliminate” the risk of another surge, if people stuck to restrictions for the next eight weeks.
If a potential fourth wave could be avoided, Ireland could hope to have something close to a “normal summer”, Dr Glynn said.
“If we can see through the next eight weeks, the country will feel like a very different place than it has the last year,” he said.
On Wednesday, Nphet reported a further six coronavirus-related deaths and 411 confirmed Covid-19 cases.
The current R-number, which is the average amount of people one infected person passes the virus onto, stood between 1 and 1.3.
“It doesn’t seem to be getting worse, but unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be getting better,” Prof Nolan said.
However, if the R-number increased in the coming weeks, as some restrictions on outdoor activities are eased, “we would be in real difficulty,” he said.
If the R-number rose to 1.5 in early April, this could lead to a spike of the virus and see more than 400 people hospitalised, and more than 100 in intensive care.
If increased social contacts saw the R-number hit two, the country could see a wave of the virus similar to January, with close to 1,600 Covid-19 patients in hospital, and 500 people in intensive care.
In such a fourth wave “fatality rates would be significantly lower” than in January, due to the vaccination of those in nursing homes and the vulnerable over-70s, Prof Nolan said.
Dr Glynn said people were “obviously much more fatigued”, following what had been “such a difficult year”. Yet as the incidence of the virus remained at a relatively high rate, “things can go wrongly quickly and easily,” he said.
Despite huge efforts made by the public, the country was in “a much much worse position” than in the days before Christmas, he said. This was largely due to the now widespread presence of the more transmissible B117 variant.
Prof Pete Lunn, of the ESRI behavioural research unit, said while compliance with restrictions remained high, “the behaviour of a minority is increasing the risk for all of us.”
Research into people’s behaviour showed there had been “clear slippage” in adherence to restrictions recently, with a rise in social visits between homes.
People who had been strictly adhering to the regulations were now “pushing the boundaries a little bit”, Prof Lunn said.
However, there was a “misperception” that the majority of people expected society to fully reopen in the near future, he said. ESRI research showed people were not “queuing at the gates to get back out there”, he said.
In fact, the majority of people estimated it would be between nine and 12 months until all Covid-19 restrictions would be lifted for good, he said.
Expanded
Meanwhile, the North’s vaccination programme has been expanded to include people aged between 45 and 49.
The online booking service for the injection opened on Wednesday, with people born between April 1st, 1971, and March 31st, 1976, invited to make an appointment at either a vaccination centre or community pharmacy.
People can also choose to wait until their GP contacts them.
The North's Minister for Health, Robin Swann, said he urged everyone who was eligible to "get the jab as soon as possible". He received his first dose of the vaccine later on Wednesday.
According to the Northern Ireland Department of Health's most recent figures, as of Wednesday 887,598 doses of vaccine have been administered, which includes 749,112 first doses.
The North reported no further deaths with Covid-19 on Wednesday, leaving the total recorded by the department at 2,115.
An additional 123 people tested positive for the virus.
As of midnight on Tuesday 118 people with coronavirus were receiving hospital treatment in the North, with 17 in intensive care.
