The Health Service Executive has warned that hospitals will not be able to cope if a second wave of the coronavirus falls during the winter flu season, as officials said the country had already entered a "precarious position".
Current models show if the spread of the virus continues as it has in recent weeks the number of new cases could rise to over 150 a day by August 10th, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) said.
Dr Ronan Glynn, acting chief medical officer at the Department of Health, said such a scenario would have a "very, very negative impact on the plans to get our children back to school".
Prof Philip Nolan, chair of Nphet's modelling group, said the R-number, that is the average number of people an infected person passes the virus onto, had likely risen to 1.4, but could be as high as 1.8.
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High uncertainty
If the reproductive number was at the higher rate, the country could see 150 or 160 cases a day in three weeks’ time. “We are in a position of high uncertainty at the moment,” he said.
Speaking at the Nphet briefing on Thursday, Dr Glynn said it would have been “foolhardy” to move to phase four of easing restrictions, and reopen pubs that do not serve food on Monday.
The next two weeks would be crucial in reducing spread of the virus, and the country was in a “precarious position”, he said.
“Some activities that have been happening over the last number of weeks have led to a situation where we are not currently suppressing this disease,” he said.
Following concern over several large clusters linked to house parties, the Government this week reduced the numbers allowed to gather in one household to 10.
The decision around reopening schools and pubs “depends on what happens over the next few weeks”, Dr Glynn said.
Acute hospitals will not be able to handle a second wave of coronavirus during the winter season without intervention, HSE officials will tell politicians on Friday.
The health service will need to reduce the traditionally high numbers attending hospitals and emergency departments during the coming flu season, officials will tell the Oireachtas committee on Covid-19.
Hospitals are only operating at 80 per cent capacity at present, in order to quickly respond to a potential surge in coronavirus cases, the HSE’s briefing for the committee stated.
During the normal winter flu season capacity often “surges above 100 per cent,” with high levels of overcrowding on trolleys in emergency departments, the briefing states.
One death
“If there is a second wave of Covid-19 during this period, the system will not have the capacity to meet unscheduled care demand, unless specific actions are taken,” it states.
Dr Colm Henry, HSE chief clinical officer, said he "would not like to envisage" a second coronavirus wave during the winter flu season. "I can't see any healthcare service managing that scenario, I couldn't put it more starkly than that," he said.
Nphet reported one further coronavirus death on Thursday, and an additional 21 confirmed cases.
One in five recent cases are travel related, either from an imported case or someone infected by an individual returning from abroad, the Nphet briefing heard.
Dr Glynn said he accepted that “the message is confusing” on overseas travel, as the Government plans to publish a “green list” of countries considered safe to visit next week, while Nphet advises against non-essential travel.
“Nphet’s position in relation to travel has been very clear for many months now, and it is to avoid non-essential travel overseas,” he said, adding the green list was a decision taken by Government.
