TECHNOLOGY:HOW DO YOU explain what's happening in the software industry? Let me give you an analogy. It used to be as if various software companies made certain sports equipment – like different balls, bats, nets and so on – while some other companies constructed different arenas, pitches and recreation halls. People could assemble the requisite equipment together and play a particular sport.
Then along came Microsoft. It had vision: it combined things together. Microsoft built and sells integrated multi-purpose stadiums. You can play football, baseball, hockey – most major sports – within their very impressive buildings.
Thus Bill Gates, and other Microsofties, made an awful lot of money.
But then Google said maybe people would like to find out where the various stadiums actually are, what teams are playing, and what are the scores. Pretty soon Google realised that different people follow different teams: when Ross O’Carroll-Kelly asks about “the team” he doesn’t mean Martin Johnson. Thus Google realised that it could deliver precision advertising. For example, targeting D4 citizens who have Malossol caviar for breakfast.
Thus Sergey Brin, Larry Page, and other Googlers, made an awful lot of money.
Then Google decided to take on Microsoft. Google was clever: rather than a head-to-head confrontation, they instead changed the industry dynamics. In embracing the internet and web much more aggressively than Microsoft, it is as if they went out to the public parks and playing pitches. They said that any sports team, and everyone else, can play here. They encouraged people to develop entirely new games, along with the traditional ones played in the Microsoft edifices. Google suggested that there was no longer any need to pay Microsoft in advance to build expensive multipurpose stadiums, but instead come and join everyone else in these wonderful wide open spaces.
Google then said if you really want, you can find out what is going on by using a personal computer. A much better way is to use your Android smartphone. Your phone fits in your pocket: not only can you use it to call somebody, but we can make your phone aware of what is hip and happening.
Google repositioned familiar Microsoft concepts. Google Documents is akin to Microsoft Office, but in the community world-wide cloud. Gmail is like Outlook, but in “the cloud”. You need a filing cabinet system, like Windows, but you can have it in the cloud: thus your smart Android phone can access that very same document in Google Docs which you edited from your Windows PC. It is as if Google had said that football needn’t always be played in a stadium, basketball needn’t always be played in a gymnasium, and you can enjoy and participate in any game anywhere even if you don’t have an arena.
Cloud computing changes the dynamics. You pay as you go, rather than prepaying to buy software. You can access information from any device – your personal computer, your office computer and your smartphone. Provided you have a modest broadband connection, you can join in from pretty much anywhere on the planet.
But clouds are nebulous, bright and dark. Some businesses and consumers believe that cloud computing is unproven and unsafe. Their fears were dramatically confirmed last April when Amazon’s cloud infrastructure failed for several days, and in doing so badly damaged businesses which had outsourced their computing requirements to Amazon.
Joni Mitchell sang that that she had seen both sides of clouds, up and down, and that she really didn’t know clouds at all. Last week Steve Jobs stepped forward and asserted to all doubters and unbelievers: absolutely no problem, you don’t need to.
It is as if Bill built multipurpose stadiums, Sergey and Larry went for the open public park, and Steve has gone for his own playpen. Steve offers a limited set of Apple toys, and they all work wonderfully together. Steve provides his shop, the App Store, and you can buy more toys there if you want. Now Steve, in effect, will offer you your own cupboard (it’s called “iCloud” but don’t worry about that) which will automatically preserve everything for you. Everything just works as fully as you expect it to.
By building a controlled environment, Apple have cleverly constructed a collection of devices, content and experiences for the consumer masses. Rather than have you Google to try and track down information on the world wide web, Apple instead provides a wide range of prepackaged applications (from both its own developers and third parties) each of which is individually crafted, with easy-to-understand graphics, to do just a specific task. And now, as you move from your old personal computer (as long as it’s a Mac), to your smartphone (as long as it’s an iPhone), or even to your new personal tablet (as long as it’s an iPad), then everything you use and like will automatically be right in front of you on each device.
Microsoft has been driven by cool dudes. Google has been driven by cool developers. Apple is driven by really cool design: aesthetics matter. Cloud computing may excite the geeks, but Steve said you don’t need to worry about it: cloud illusions are totally ignorable.