It’s a case of out of the budgetary frying pan, into the backbenchers’ line of fire for the Taoiseach today.
Micheál Martin has spent much of this week balancing his budgetary duties with damage control after the implosion of the Jim Gavin presidential campaign – and now has to face his suddenly-restive backbenchers at the weekly meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party at on Wednesday evening.
There was no shortage of criticism – both on and off the record – for the Taoiseach and his deputy Jack Chambers yesterday over the fiasco. Some of this is genuine – some is purely political, with Martin’s internal critics seeing it as a golden chance to build pressure on him. All of it is a genuine political problem for the Taoiseach, who will have to appear contrite, but not weakened, by the disaster of the Gavin campaign he was so eager to build.
As for the budget: Paschal Donohoe is fond of saying that such occasions are about choices, and there were no shortage of critics of the choices made in Tuesday’s €9.4 billion spending package. One budget veteran recalled yesterday how Enda Kenny used to say that a good budget is one that was forgotten by teatime on Tuesday. It’s unlikely that Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris will be quite so lucky.
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Most obviously, there is not much for the squeezed middle in this budget. Meanwhile there wasn’t much (or any) progress on Programme for Government promises such as income tax, childcare costs and increasing the renters’ tax credit. Meanwhile, despite a big increase in disability spending, the Disability Federation of Ireland said it represents a setback for disabled people unable to work. The VAT cuts for apartment building, restaurants and utility bills, as well as changes to the R&D tax credit and extending (but not increasing) the renters’ tax credit, gobbled up swathes of fiscal room for manouevre.
The Opposition got stuck into the VAT cut for restaurants – branding it a budget for burger barons (Labour’s Ged Nash) and a giveaway for the takeaways (Solidarity’s Ruth Coppinger). Meanwhile, the hawks in the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council were critical of what they see as overspending.
In truth, it’s a tepid budget with little to be enthusiastic about – although that might depend on how excited you get about caution and careful incrementalism. The Coalition prepared the ground beforehand, messaging heavily that this would be a less lavish outing, and a difficult political sell that would leave Ministers on the defensive. It will count itself lucky if it doesn’t live long in the memory, and the fabled budgetary landmines are avoided. But it won’t help Government popularity – nor is it likely to give the Coalition a much-needed boost to momentum, cohesion or purpose.
Best reads
Pat Leahy rounds up budget day in our lead story today: Little for middle-income earners amid VAT cuts and public spending
Elsewhere, he asks how this will go down with voters: This is what caution looks like. But will it wash with voters?
Cormac McQuinn and Ellen Coyne on Fianna Fáil’s demand for answers from its leader
Cliff Taylor’s analysis is here: Anti-populist budget offers little for middle-income earners
If you’re so inclined, our budget calculator is here – but don’t expect the result to be earth-shattering. Also, our experts are answering your budget questions this morning.
Fiona Reddan on how families stand to lose out – albeit without the drama of the austerity years.
Follow our live coverage of the Fianna Fáil fallout on our live story this morning.
Playbook
On the presidential campaign trail, both Heather Humphreys and Catherine Connolly will be canvassing in Dublin as the new two-horse race begins to take shape.
That Fianna Fáil parliamentary party showdown is at 7pm.
Dáil action starts at 10.23am with oral questions for Minister for Housing James Browne, followed by Leaders’ Questions and Other Members Questions from midday. Leaders’ Speeches on the budget will run over lunchtime, and Government Business continues on financial resolutions in the afternoon until the house adjourns at 9.17pm.
Here’s the full schedule.
Commencement matters are at 10.30am in the Seanad, with statements on the budget at 1pm. Private Members’ time is given over to a motion on supports and services for patients with head and neck cancers, at 5pm. It adjourns at 7pm.
In the committee rooms, the disability matters committee meets at 9.30am on inclusive education, while the EU Affairs Committee meets at the same time with representatives of the European Committee of the Regions.
The National Ambulance Service is in the health committee at 10am. In the afternoon, the Climate Committee has an engagement with the transport sector on climate change targets, that’s at 12.30pm. The Enterprise Committee has a session on the cost of doing business, and the Transport Committee will hear about road safety at 3.30pm.
Post-budget ministerial press conferences continue – among them, transport minister Darragh O’Brien, Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill and Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan.
Elsewhere, it’s Junior Cert results day. But will any politicians be wishing students well on social media? We can only hope.
