Health

Flu season is predicted to peak next week. Why is Ireland not better prepared?

Capacity problems and uncertain forecasts leave HSE having to adapt - with potential cold snap mishaps adding to pressure

Over Christmas week there were a total of 2,319 confirmed cases of influenza, with hospital numbers topping 1,000 last week
Over Christmas week there were a total of 2,319 confirmed cases of influenza, with hospital numbers topping 1,000 last week
Shauna Bowers's picture
Shauna Bowers
Mon Jan 06 2025 - 06:00

Every January similar headlines emerge: the number of people with flu in hospital has risen, the system is under pressure. New year, same problem.

Respiratory illnesses – flu, Covid and RSV – all increase during the winter months as low temperatures increase the likelihood of getting sick. People are inside more where viruses spread more easily due to a lack of ventilation.

Over Christmas week there were a total of 2,319 confirmed cases of influenza. Hospital numbers topped 1,000 last week, but dropped to just below that number on Friday, before dropping to 834 on Sunday morning.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re at the end of the surge. The HSE predicts the flu season will peak next week, after which there is likely to be a further rise in cases. But if this happens every year why is the country not more prepared? Well, one part of the difficulty is forecasting just how severe the surge will be.

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Bernard Gloster, chief executive of the HSE, last week said HSE modelling forecasted there could be up to 900 influenza patients in hospital. Within days this number had been surpassed.

The more significant contributor is the capacity. As of Sunday, there were 338 people on trolleys in both emergency departments and wards. There was also a further 458 in surge capacity. In overcrowded conditions infectious diseases continue to spread.

Though the number of hospital beds has increased in recent years, there is still a mismatch between supply and demand. And demand is growing.

Between December 20th and January 2nd, 60,609 people attended emergency departments, an 18 per cent increase on the same time last year (51,394). Over this period there has been an 11 per cent increase in admissions compared with last year, with 15,384 people admitted compared with 13,814.

But in more positive news there was also a 15 per cent increase in the number of patients being discharged over the course of this period compared to the same time last year, which keeps the system moving. Adding to this positivity, Covid-19 cases have remained stable, according to a spokeswoman for the HSE, accounting for 18 per cent of respiratory illness last week.

But the winter illness surge could be further compounded this year due to the cold snap the country is currently experiencing. When conditions are icy and frosty or when there’s heavy snow or rainfall the likelihood of slips, trips, falls or road accidents increases.

When these are severe it increases pressure on the hospital systems, which is why the HSE issued a statement encouraging the use of the 14 injury units around the country rather than automatically attending the emergency departments. There is also increased availability of general practice in terms of extended days and Saturday morning, as well as increased GP Out of Hours service.

All of these steps – utilising the entire health system rather than just the hospitals – is a key instrument in the HSE’s plan to minimise a significant consequence of a surge in flu: the cancellation of scheduled care.

A procedure cannot be carried out unless there is a bed for that patient to go into afterwards. If these beds are taken up by flu or other emergency care patients then the procedures are rescheduled to a later date.

Some patients have been contacted already about rescheduled surgeries and care, while others might yet still be contacted, the HSE said.

But a spokeswoman said the executive is focusing on critical care, and is using the private hospital sector in order to increase capacity to facilitate this in a bid to keep the system going even under times of severe pressure.