More than 100,000 houses and commercial buildings, including many new builds, are at increased risk of being affected by extreme coastal events, according to the latest analysis of every Eircode in Ireland.
The projections by Gamma Risk includes potential insurance costs from storms made worse by climate change, amounting to €4.5 billion in a worst-case scenario post 2050. The analytics company evaluates risk for local authorities and insurance companies using advanced modelling and mapping.
“Coastal flooding is not just a theoretical climate risk for Ireland, it is a measurable and increasingly costly exposure,” said Richard Garry, chief commercial officer with Gamma Risk. “Rising sea levels, more frequent storm surges and shifting weather patterns are converging to put both residential and commercial properties at risk – including new addresses.”
Understanding how much of this new building stock is vulnerable, as well as what the potential financial implications could be, is “vital for insurers, banks, policymakers and communities alike”, he added.
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“Collectively, it is crucial that we manage risk and implement adaptation strategies to enable Ireland to withstand the next generation of coastal flood events. [Our] data – which is the most comprehensive to date and uses the latest location intelligence analytics technology – shows climate risk is only moving in one direction.”
In an update of its 2020 analysis, it finds in the five-year period up to August, 2025, the total number of addresses in Ireland has increased by 4.8 per cent to 2,321,352. That is a jump of 112,354, including both residential and commercial properties, as well as a mix of building types.
Overall, 4.5 per cent of addresses are currently at risk of flooding in an extreme coastal event, equating to 104,518, it concludes. Of 112,354 new addresses since 2020, 4,774 (4.25 per cent) are at risk of flooding in an extreme coastal event.
Gamma Risk analysis is of “an extreme coastal event”, with a 1 per cent chance it will occur in any one year this century. It also factored in continuing sea-level rise (potentially reaching one metre by the end of the century) and increased severity of storms being fuelled by global warming, which is leading to higher storm surges around the coast.
Co Dublin has the largest number of newly-constructed buildings which are in an at-risk zone. This includes the areas of Dublin 1, 3 and 13, but particularly East Wall and the docklands at the mouth of the river Liffey. The analysis confirms heightened risk to existing properties north of the estuary along the entire coastline up to Co Louth, including parts of Howth Head.
Other areas with a high proportion of new addresses in at-risk zones include the Shannon estuary (covering Limerick and Shannon), and Louth – specifically Dundalk.
Gamma Risk estimated the cost of potential insurance claims post 2050, based on an outcome of every single at-risk address being flooded. As some counties have more properties at risk than others, the cost would be greater in Dublin, Clare, Louth, Cork and Galway. These areas are also among the most costly for rebuilds.
Dublin alone, it says, would contain a third of potential claims – amounting to about €1.6bn and based on 3,332 houses or residential units. Claims would be driven by a large number of coastline properties and some commercial properties in the city centre, which entail higher claim amounts.
The analysis notes construction activity in at-risk areas can be deemed appropriate “if sufficient protection and mitigation measures are undertaken as part of the development process”.
Co Clare has 10 per cent of the total potential claim volume, driven by the number of low-lying properties along the Shannon estuary. Similarly, Limerick city is highly exposed. Co Louth is in the top three counties by potential claim volume.
Despite having large numbers of properties close to the sea, areas south of Dublin – in Wicklow, Wexford and parts of Waterford – are less exposed. This is due to the model anticipating lower levels of water during an extreme coastal event.
The modelling finds varying risk of flood depth in possible extreme coastal events, ranging from three metres in the southeast to 5.5 metres in the west and northeast. This variance is due to a range of climatic factors including coastal orientation, wave patterns and exposure to open ocean.
