The incoming government must make immediate adjustments to carbon budgets or face escalating costs running into the 2030s that will have profound impacts, the Climate Change Advisory Council has warned.
“Ireland has not risen to meet its climate change challenges, and is currently set to miss its agreed carbon budget to 2030,” the council said following its analysis of emissions cuts necessary up to 2040.
It says an urgent correction to respond to the climate crisis is required which will see “the most significant change to the Irish economy since the foundation of the State...by phasing out harmful fossil fuels as early as 2039″.
“If we do not act there will be profound costs to the Irish economy and to the people of Ireland,” it adds.
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The council, made up of independent experts who advise the Government, says their warning coincides with climate change impacts worsening throughout Ireland, with increased flooding, droughts and coastal damage, “which is already having significant and costly consequences for people, communities and nature”.
Recognising the transition will be highly disruptive, the council warns “strong political leadership is required, now, by making the necessary investment, taxation and policy decisions to help Ireland capitalise on the transformational opportunity that a climate neutral society presents”.
The council today (Thursday) published its final proposed carbon budget for 2031-2035 and a provisional carbon budget for 2036-2040, setting out indicative emission reductions of 67 per cent. An annual emissions reduction of at least 6.3 per cent on average year-on-year to 2040 is required. A 6.8 per cent cut was achieved in 2023 but there are concerns reductions of that order may not be achieved in coming years.
Carbon budgets apply pollution limits measured as total amount of carbon emissions that may be released during an agreed five-year period across every sector – including electricity production, transport and agriculture. Measured in tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent and legally binding, they are designed to set a pathway to “climate neutrality” by 2050.
The proposed carbon budgets set out “a challenging but necessary pathway for Ireland to achieve a climate-neutral and biodiversity-rich society before 2050″ – the national climate objective – where Ireland no longer contributes to the increase in global temperatures, said council chair Marie Donnelly.
“While the transition will bring significant political and social challenges it presents us with an opportunity to achieve a more sustainable society, a cleaner environment with improved health and wellbeing for all of our citizens.
“A crucial step to help achieve this is for government to prioritise investment and resources now by phasing out harmful fossil fuels as early as 2039 and saving people and businesses money,” Ms Donnelly added.
“This will help Ireland avoid future fines and compliance costs, provide the opportunity to deliver energy independence, reduce costs and help to maintain our competitive economy in a low-carbon world, while building greater resilience to impacts of climate change.”
She said the process of change must be managed carefully and in a way which ensures potential impacts on people, communities and nature are properly addressed. “Mobilising financial supports quickly will help people and households, in both urban and rural communities, as well as the most impacted sectors, take action at the speed and scale required.”
Council member Prof Peter Thorne said it had considered the most recent scientific evidence. The budgets did not take account of any exceedance in emissions that may occur between now and 2030. If emissions exceed the agreed carbon budget “the exceedance” must be deducted from the next carbon budget, he added. This would constrain activities in key sectors.
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