Ireland is in the throes of a cold spell that is about to become a deeper freeze, with night-time temperatures predicted to fall to -10 degrees.
This is not a “put on a woolly jumper” type of cold. For Ireland, it’s extreme and prompted Met Éireann to issue an orange alert where conditions could be “dangerous to life”.
What is pushing the temperature dial in the wrong direction is a combination of lying snow and severe frosts. Fortunately, in our case, warmer Atlantic weather fronts are likely to win the battle over polar air by the weekend — as they inevitably do.
How does this compare to previous cold spells?
Met Éireann forecaster Gerry Murphy describes these conditions are “quite unusual”. Similar episodes occurred in 2018 — the “beast from the east” — and 2010 which was much more severe as it was prolonged over November-December when nocturnal temperatures below -10 became a regular feature; reaching as low as -17.5 in Co Mayo on November 25th. Ballyhaise, Co Cavan, had the coldest day on record at any station on November 21st when the temperature only got up to -9.4.
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What was the coldest temperature ever in Ireland?
The lowest temperature ever recorded was -19.1 at Markree Castle, Co Sligo, on January 16th, 1881. The lowest air temperature recorded in the 20th century was -18.8 at Lullymore, Co Kildare, on January 2nd, 1979.
Does Ireland stand out in experiencing the worst of this cold spell?
We are by no means experiencing the worst conditions. Our neighbours, Britain, are hit by a double-whammy of snow/ice and extreme flooding, exacerbated by high rainfall and saturated land. Scotland has experienced colder conditions, reaching -13.3. The United States is experiencing a winter storm with blizzards affecting millions of people with values of -10 and lower across a vast area as it is hit by a “polar vortex”.
Could global warming be contributing to a harsher winter?
The short answer is, possibly. Then again what Ireland is going through could be normal variability of our weather. In due course, climate-attribution scientists will determine what has occurred and to what extent a warming world — strange as it might seem — may have exacerbated cold conditions.
Due to climate change cold Arctic air may be more likely to break containment in the northernmost reaches of the planet and escape southward, bringing frigid temperatures, especially in North America. Research indicates climate change has resulted in more frequent polar vortex disruptions though the planet is warming overall — a trend predicted to continue for decades despite winter extremes.
Scientists are evaluating a potential increase in the intensity and frequency of winter cold spells in the northern hemisphere.
If that is the case, our preparedness for such events comes into question. Are our infrastructure and buildings robust enough; especially utilities providing electricity/heat and water? Can schools pivot quickly to online teaching as happened during the Covid-19 pandemic? The evidence from recent days suggests those questions cannot be answered with a confident yes.
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