The strength of the Garda force will soon start to decline and may go as low as 12,000 in the near future, the force’s middle managers have warned.
That prediction, if it came to pass, would put enormous pressure on the Garda, including the level of high-visibility police it could provide, response times to 999 calls and on criminal investigations.
The Association of Garda Sergeants and Inspectors (Agsi) said while numbers may be stabilising at about 14,000 members, a spike in age-related retirements will soon kick in, meaning departures from the force will outnumber new recruits.
Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan said while he could not be certain how Garda recruitment levels would progress in the years ahead, a budget had been allocated to increase numbers to 15,000 and he was determined to try to reach that level.
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He said he would “leave no stone unturned” in his efforts to attract young recruits to the force, though in the current buoyant economy it was difficult to recruit to frontline roles, especially those involving shift work.
However, Agsi general secretary Ronan Clogher said significant efforts must also be made to encourage experienced Garda members to remain in service, rather than resigning for other opportunities or leaving immediately they are eligible to retire.
“I’m talking about stuff like stopping the pension payments, maybe paying out the gratuity, long-term service increments, maybe putting incentives in place such as providing medical insurance which you see in private industry all the time. It’s not mind-blowing stuff.”
Mr Clogher warned while Garda numbers had been under pressure since the onset of the pandemic, with direct consequences for the policing service provided to the public, the situation was about to sharply deteriorate.
There had been a 10-year period of enhanced recruitment, starting in 1996, and that generation of gardaí was about to become eligible to retire having accrued 30 years’ service.
“From next year ... I could see us losing huge numbers. I wouldn’t be dramatic if I said we’ll be down to 13,000 or 12,000 in a year or two,” he said at the opening session of the Agsi annual conference in Killarney, Co Kerry.
All of the stakeholders, including oversight bodies, agreed what will be a decade-long spike in retirements was about to put serious pressure on the Garda.
Mr O’Callaghan told delegates he was conscious his department must examine new ways to make the Garda more “agile” in a bid to ensure a significant flow of new recruits. He said a class of more than 200 had just started training at the Garda College, which was the biggest single intake since before the pandemic.
Last week Mr O’Callaghan secured Government approval to extended by a further three months, to September 1st, the contract of Garda Commissioner Drew Harris, which allows more time to find his successor. However, The Irish Times revealed at the weekend that few, if any, of the senior officers who have spent their careers in the Garda intended to apply for the commissioner’s post when it was advertised.
They are reluctant to apply as many of them believe whomever secures the role, and the large salary and pension it involves, would face a tax liability of about €500,000 on retirement. The unwillingness at this time of the senior officers to apply for the role raises the prospect it will go to a foreign national, currently working as senior police officer abroad, or to a senior PSNI officer.
However, Mr O’Callaghan said the process of finding Mr Harris’s successor was about to commence and he hoped it would be concluded by July, by which time he hoped to be in a position to recommend the successful candidate to Government for appointment. The pension-related concerns aside, he said he was very hopeful the current group of senior Garda officers would apply for the role as it was a very “prestigious” position.
