A new era began for Ireland and particularly for Irish agriculture in 1973, with entry to the then EEC offering attractive and guaranteed terms to major market outlets. Initial expectations were quickly realised.
The raising of farm incomes to a level far exceeding what it otherwise would be outside the community has been the most significant impact of EU membership on Ireland. That contribution was particularly transparent in the past 20 years or so when direct payments from the CAP regularly accounted for over half of total farm income and occasionally much more when farming had a difficult market year.
With the rapid expansion in other sectors of the economy, the role of agriculture in the national economy has inexorably declined in common with that in virtually every other country in the developed world.
Some structural features of farming have changed greatly since EU entry.The big beasts in agriculture now are cattle and milk production, accounting for up to 70 per cent of total output. Currently these enterprises occur on over 80 per cent of holdings with 17,000 dairy farms and 85,000 non-dairy cattle farms.
In retrospect the half century of membership of the EU has been on balance a positive experience for agriculture and the economy as a whole. But we are now entering a new era where climate change and its ramifications will have a dramatic impact. It will have a particular impact on farming and especially on the main systems practised in Ireland.
The Climate Action Plan 2021 sets out a roadmap to halve our greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. The emissions target for agriculture is a reduction of 20-30 per cent by 2030. Agriculture accounts for over a third of Irish emissions, mainly driven from the national cattle population and fertiliser application. The main focus is firmly on reducing the cattle herd and, unsurprisingly, this has met a certain degree of circumnavigation from the agricultural fraternity.
For decades government policy was focused mainly on agricultural expansion, with the bovine sector usually foremost, and farmers themselves were and still are imbued with that mind set. In truth the overall volume of output in Irish agriculture in recent times has been largely driven by the dairy sector, whose output has increased by over 50 per cent since 2014. It is one of the most competitive dairy enterprises in the world and a huge contributor to exports, but yet it is an enterprise adding significantly to greenhouse gas emissions.
While from an economic perspective the beef herd should bear the brunt of the adjustment to meeting emissions reduction targets it may transpire that the dairy enterprise could also be under pressure to curtail or even reduce output. The implementation of the Climate Action Plan could, therefore, impose a restriction on the only significant enterprise which has been contributing to the growth of the agricultural economy.
While there are many incentives in the new strategic plan, as referenced below, to support diversification they may not be sufficient, in the short term at least, to offset the loss of income arising from a possible curtailment of the dairy sector.
As the climate action plan kicks in this year so also does the CAP Strategic Plan 2023-27 with a budget of €9.8 billion, whose scope and structure clearly dovetails with the objectives of the climate initiative. While there are generous measures for supporting farm incomes, young farmers, farm efficiency and modernisation, farmers in less favoured areas and organic farmers, there are two massive agri-environment schemes that are targeted at farmers who engage in practices beneficial to the climate, environment, water quality and biodiversity.
The focus and intensity of these latter measures will provide an unprecedented level of funding for adaptation to the requirements of this new agri-environmental and climate action-focused era.
Despite the availability of substantial funding the process of adapting to this new green era may well be a challenging and unsettling experience for many farmers. The transition will almost certainly be a slow process as the aptitude and skills to adopt new activities could take quite some time to evolve.
The position of that cohort of landholders with beef cattle enterprises is the most problematic and most difficult to adapt. The majority of them have the lowest incomes from farming, are older than average, have less contact with support services and are more conservative in their farming activities. They probably are the least likely to be receptive to consider alternative options to what they consider a most familiar way of living and quality of life.
However, these and other issues will have to be faced as well as the conundrum of trying to reconcile the food production function of the farming sector with its obligations to the protection of the environment.
The onus to establish a positive link between the profitable adoption of the appropriate agri-environment measures in the CAP Strategic Plan and the realisation of climate action goals should be established by the relevant government department as soon as possible, and the plan should be vigorously promoted by the responsible agencies in a timely manner to facilitate a sufficient buy-in from a sceptical farming community.
Brendan Kearney is an economic consultant and former assistant director of An Foras Taluntais (now Teagasc)
