The US informed Lebanese officials on Monday night that a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah could be announced “within hours”. Lebanon’s deputy speaker of parliament Elias Bou Saab told Reuters that there were “no serious obstacles” remaining between the sides.
The Israeli security cabinet will convene on Tuesday and is expected to approve the ceasefire agreement, with diplomatic sources in Israel indicating that a deal is very close after more than 13 months of fighting.
The powerful Shia militia, backed by Iran, began firing rockets into northern Israel from Lebanon the day after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023. For a year it refused to agree to a truce as long as the fighting in Gaza continued but it dropped this linkage after Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon and killed a number of Hizbullah leaders and senior commanders in October.
Lebanon’s health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed 3,768 people in Lebanon and forced more than one million people from their homes. Its casualty figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
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Hizbullah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel and the Golan Heights, and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.
The emerging agreement is based on an initial 60-day truce, during which Hizbullah fighters will move north of the Litani river and the Lebanese army and Unifil troops will deploy between the Israeli border and the Litani, which is some 30km north of the Israeli border.
Israel has made it clear that will act aggressively and immediately if Hizbullah violates the terms of the ceasefire and an annex accompanying the agreement to this effect will be signed between Israel and the US.
The US will also play the dominant role in a new five-country committee that will supervise the ceasefire and developments on the ground, in close co-ordination with the Lebanese Army Forces.
Israel hopes the agreement will pave the way for the return of the 60,000 or so residents of the north who fled their homes to avoid Hizbullah rocket fire. However, many border community mayors condemned the “surrender deal”, warning that Hizbullah can rearm and return to the Shia villages close to the border in the coming years.
There is also political opposition, although prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu is expected to garner a majority for the deal.
National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength), described the emerging agreement with Lebanon as “a big mistake” representing a “historic missed opportunity to eradicate” Hizbullah. “Now, when Hizbullah is weakened and desperate for a ceasefire, we must not stop,” he said.
Despite the optimism of an imminent breakthrough, both sides continued attacks in advance of a possible truce. The Israel Defense Forces announced on Monday that the air force had attacked Hizbullah command centres in the Dahiyeh quarter in Beirut, and in Nabatieh, Baalbek and the Bekaa valley. It claimed militant targets were also hit in Tyre in southern Lebanon. Hizbullah continued its rocket and drone attacks across northern Israel. – Additional reporting: Reuters
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