As we close out a challenging year, signs are emerging of a more robust 2025 for Ireland’s property investment market. An acute shortage of assets for sale has defined 2024, with limited options for investors across the board.
The general shortage of institutional-grade investment trades has left many owners hesitant to bring assets to the market, waiting for more consistent pricing benchmarks. Yet, as the year-end trading season gathers momentum, this landscape is on the cusp of change. If activity continues to build, it could set the stage for increased momentum and greater asset availability in 2025.
Throughout 2024, investor demand in Ireland has been reasonably high, but the supply of investment opportunities has remained stubbornly low relative to current cycle averages. This imbalance, partly due to owners opting to delay sales, has limited available assets and heightened demand for those that do emerge. However, when a prime asset does hit the market, the scarcity often drives stronger-than-expected offers from investors eager to secure a foothold in the market.
This dynamic is particularly visible in sectors like offices, retail, and logistics, where prime assets are few. While this environment benefits those willing to sell, it has also fuelled an increasingly competitive market. Those buyers with available funds to deploy are looking to make their mark, sometimes by underwriting aggressively, knowing they have limited options.
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Looking forward, I believe 2025 could offer a different picture as market conditions align to drive up activity. A potential increase in distressed assets could provide more opportunities for buyers. As debt maturities approach and leverage ratios remain high, some property holders may decide that now is the time to divest, especially those who have “run out of road” with their holding strategies. As more assets are expected to enter the market next year, coupled with further anticipated interest rate cuts, the Irish property investment market could see activity levels returning to €3-€4 billion.
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In this environment, a key consideration for owners and investors alike will be timing. A near-term window of opportunity could emerge as 2025 begins, particularly for those who act early before a potential influx of properties crowds the market. For sellers, bringing assets to market now may capture higher interest and pricing benefits, as competition for limited stock remains fierce. For buyers, moving quickly might help secure attractive deals in a tight market before supply rises and potentially impacts pricing dynamics.
Pricing will be key, as the industry awaits those crucial “data points” that will help set the stage for more consistent comparables.
The political backdrop will also be much clearer in 2025. While many have questioned the impact of a Trump presidency, I remain sanguine, given that his last presidency coincided with €16 billion worth of commercial property investment in Ireland.
Ultimately, Ireland’s property investment market is set for a transition. For sellers, the chance to capitalise on limited prime supply will likely narrow as 2025 progresses, making the near term particularly opportune. For investors, an anticipated uptick in available assets could provide greater choice and potentially normalise pricing.
Both parties stand to benefit from a strategic approach as the market moves into what promises to be a defining year for Irish real estate investment.
Mark Reynolds is managing director of Savills Ireland and EMEA executive board member.
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