Good morning.
In recent years, this time of the year has been marked by competition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to get their budget kites first in the air. Even though the actual budget doesn’t happen for another five months, the early bird catches the worm, and all that. The two rivals – er, partners – sought to outdo one another in taking credit for the budget giveaways to come.
It’s a bit different this year.
Our lead story today reports Minister of State Neale Richmond warning that if there is no trade deal with the United States, then planned tax cuts in the October budget will have to be abandoned.
Budget giveaway promises absent as Ireland’s economic model faces unprecedented threat
Taoiseach pleads for patience as Opposition bears down over children’s hip surgery patients
US tariffs could jeopardise planned tax cuts in budget, warns Minister
Banks obliged to retain ATMs under legislation passed by Seanad
Richmond’s comments represent a growing school of thought in Government that believes it would be fiscally reckless to repeat the windfall budgets of recent years at a time of such economic uncertainty, we report.
Senior sources acknowledge that Ministers will still be seeking spending increases for their departments during the budget process. However, the hands of the Department of Finance and the Department of Public Expenditure are likely to be strengthened by the threatening international situation, even if a feared decline in corporation tax revenues does not arrive in the coming months.
Our page one story is here.
Two years ago, three Fine Gael junior ministers wrote an oped in the Irish Independent calling for tax cuts for the “squeezed middle”. Fianna Fáil was so upset by this uncollegiate behaviour that Micheál Martin used his ardfheis in April of last year to get in ahead and promise a series of increased tax credits and welfare increases in the pre-election budget.
But with Ireland’s economic model threatened as never before, there is a growing sense in Government – beyond just the traditionally parsimonious Department of Finance – that a repeat of the massive giveaways of recent years will not be possible. And even if it were possible, it would not be wise. It looks like the next budget is going to be very different. That will also make for a different politics.
Olive branches and defence contracts
Elsewhere, international stories dominate the headlines. Donald Trump is in Saudi Arabia – his photo adorns our front page – where he was promoting billions of dollars in commercial and trade deals, including $140 billion in defence contracts for the US arms industry for the Saudi military.
Speaking to an audience of Saudi royalty and business elites, US billionaires and the head of Fifa – many of the most dreadful people in the world, in other words – Trump also offered Iran a deal. But he also threatened Tehran with tougher sanctions if the regime rejects what he called his “olive branch”. He won’t wait around forever, though, he said. Tehran must choose. He reiterated that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon”.
Ukraine talks
Trump also said he wanted to stop the war in Ukraine, but sounded hopeful rather than confident about the talks in Istanbul tomorrow. Marco Rubio will go, he said. That means Trump’s not going. Which probably means Putin’s not going.
New broom needed at HSE
There was shock in political circles at the announcement of the resignation of HSE chief Bernard Gloster and picking a successor now becomes a key task for new Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, though Gloster will not depart until next year.
Coppinger apologises - sort of
Under intense questioning from political correspondents on the plinth at Leinster House, People Before Profit TD Ruth Coppinger yesterday apologised to journalists she had called “very pathetic” in a late night tweet at the weekend after they had questioned her refusal to take a question from a Gript reporter. But Coppinger and colleague Paul Murphy refused to back down from their refusal to speak to Gript – and judging by subsequent tweets last night, Coppinger’s apology may have been something less than heartfelt.
Best reads
Arthur Beesley on how a planning objection blocked a major water project.
Miriam Lord on Dáil exchanges over the children’s hip surgery controversy.
Mark Paul’s transport woes on a stuttering London Underground.
Must-read piece from John McManus on how the State’s ability to deliver infrastructure projects is grinding to a halt.
Playbook
Early business in the Dáil at 9am is topical issues followed by a private members’ Bill which would compel employers to recognise a trade union when 20 per cent of their employees are members. Leaders’ Questions are at noon and there’s statements on driving test waiting times later. The week’s voting block is this evening before 10pm.
In the Seanad, there’s the first debate on a Bill to ban the sale of energy drinks to children.
Several committees have their first meetings today, but it’s mostly organisational stuff at this stage.
All Oireachtas business is listed here.
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