The increasing fragility of political relations in Northern Ireland under a devolved administration should be a matter of concern to the Irish and British governments. The latest threat to the power-sharing Executive is particularly worrying: the murder of Kevin McGuigan in east Belfast has led to a suggestion by the Police Service of Northern Ireland that the Provisional IRA may have been involved and that its command structure continues to function.
The alacrity of First Minister Peter Robinson in raising the prospect of expelling Sinn Féin from the Executive on the grounds that their commitment to exclusively democratic and peaceful means had not been kept reflects a fraught relationship with Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness. Sinn Féin's earlier refusal to accept welfare cuts under the Stormont House Agreement was regarded as political opportunism by the DUP and the matter has not been resolved.
The fact that elections are due within nine months on both sides of the Border should not obscure worsening relations between the DUP and Sinn Féin. Sinn Féin's threat to the Executive over budgetary matters was, with difficulty, long-fingered. But the spectre of a functioning Provisional IRA command has struck at the very heart of unionist sensibilities. Justice Minister David Ford of the Alliance Party responded in a measured fashion, emphasising that police investigations were at a preliminary stage. On behalf of Sinn Féin, Gerry Kelly condemned the murder as "having nothing to do with republicanism" and he referred to suspects as criminals, involved in extortion, intimidation and murder.
Such denials have little potency, particularly as family members of the dead man are insisting Provisional IRA members were involved. The various parties are now looking to PSNI chief constable George Hamilton to pronounce and say whether a command structure exists. A response is not expected for weeks. If the police report that the Provisional IRA left the stage, but remains in the wings, it will have implications for government-formation in both parts of the island.
It is 10 years since the Provisional IRA put weapons beyond use and “left the stage”, creating the circumstances under which Sinn Féin could enter government; support the police and commit exclusively to democratic and peaceful means. Encouraging that process, the Irish and British governments allowed for “creative ambiguity”, involving dispensations for “on the runs” and, it has been suggested, a gradual disappearance of Provisional IRA command structures. If those structures persist, with an active membership, it will raise questions about republican commitment to the peace process. Before the situation deteriorates any further, some clarity and a robust intervention are required from the two governments.