The Northern Ireland Agreement will be carried by a majority of voters, North and South, in simultaneous referendums on May 22nd, according to The Irish Times/Guardian opinion poll published today.
Almost three-quarters of Northern voters, some 73 per cent, will endorse the agreement. Some 61 per cent of voters in the Republic, three out of every five, will support it.
The poll, directed by MRBI for The Irish Times and ICM in Britain for the Guardian, with fieldwork in Northern Ireland by the Harris Research Centre, is the first test of popular opinion on the settlement reached at Stormont Buildings on Good Friday. It was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors in this State, 500 in the North and 1,000 in Britain, between last Saturday and Tuesday. Similar key questions were asked of all respondents.
Despite divisions among unionists, the high level of support for the agreement in Northern Ireland is the poll's most striking feature. Some 73 per cent of voters will vote Yes in the referendum, 14 per cent will vote No and 13 per cent are undecided. The agreement is favoured by 70 per cent of UUP supporters, 93 per cent of the SDLP, 81 per cent of Sinn Fein, 93 per cent of the Alliance Party, and 69 per cent of Others. It is rejected by 70 per cent of the DUP's voters.
In the Republic, the corresponding figures are 61 per cent in favour of changing Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution; 20 per cent are against and 19 per cent undecided. Some 21 per cent of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael supporters opposes changes to the Constitution. A further 18 per cent of Fianna Fail and Labour voters are among the undecideds.
A bare majority of voters, 51 per cent, in this State believe the territorial claim to Northern Ireland could be relinquished for peace in Northern Ireland. One-fifth of voters, 20 per cent, think it a justifiable claim - similar to the number of respondents opposed to changing the Constitution. Some 16 per cent see the claim as a major obstacle to peace and 13 per cent don't know.
More than half of voters in both jurisdictions believe the agreement offers a strong prospect of lasting peace. Some 52 per cent of Northern voters rate the chance for a lasting peace as very strong or reasonably strong. The corresponding figure in the Republic is 57 per cent.
The prospect of a lasting peace is rated as reasonably or very poor by 17 per cent in this State and 15 per cent in Northern Ireland.
Some 25 per cent of voters in the Republic and 31 per cent of Northern voters believe the agreement may, or may not, bring peace. The level of undecideds on this question is very low - 1 per cent in the South, 2 per cent in the North.
An overwhelming 81 per cent of British voters would vote for the agreement, if a referendum were held on the Northern Irish peace process. Some 53 per cent believe it offers a strong prospect, and 41 per cent a poor chance, of delivering lasting peace.
The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, with 22 per cent, followed by the SDLP leader, Mr Hume, with 21 per cent and the UUP leader, Mr Trimble, with 18 per cent have earned most credit in Northern Ireland for producing the agreement. The talks chairman, Senator George Mitchell, rates next with 14 per cent. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, earns 5 per cent while the Sinn Fein president, Mr Adams, earns 4 per cent.
