Good morning.
The dispute between the nurses and the Government over pay and working conditions steps up a level today, with 50,000 medical appointments rescheduled due to the second work stoppage by almost 40,000 nurses and midwives.
As Martin Wall reports in our lead, the HSE has warned emergency departments will come under "extreme pressure" and mental health services will face "significant disruption". Twice the number of patients will be affected today as were during last week's strike, with disability, rehab and respite services hit for the first time in the dispute.
As well as the INMO’s strike today and Thursday, the Psychiatric Nurses Association (PNA) has a daytime overtime ban in effect today, with the same action tomorrow and Thursday escalated to a 24-hour ban.
In a joint statement yesterday, Paschal Donohoe and Simon Harris offered new talks to discuss staffing levels and working conditions – but not pay. It was immediately rejected by the INMO as a “cynical move”.
Privately, Government sources last night expressed a degree of satisfaction that they had, as they saw it, called the INMO’s bluff by inviting them into talk about non-pay issues, only to have the offer rejected. In doing so, the Government believes it is now clear the dispute is only about pay and not associated issues such as staffing.
Phil Ní Sheaghdha, the INMO’s general secretary, admitted as much when she responded by saying the nub of the dispute was being ignored, adding that private hospitals were offering recruitment bonuses of €6,000. The PNA said talks to discuss anything but pay would be of “no benefit”.
Yet, although the Government may have scored a tactical victory, all sides to the dispute acknowledge services will be significantly affected this week and next week if no resolution is found, with the possibility mental health services will take a massive hit later this week. It is also likely the public already believes the dispute to be primarily about pay.
The INMO is planning further strike days on February 12th, 13th, 14th, 19th and 21st, and the Government shows no sign of yielding. Sources last night said Ministers would keep offering to engage with unions without giving way on pay.
The Government has repeatedly said giving in will lead to knock-on claims from other unions and destroy the public sector pay deal. Donohoe has highlighted how a settlement for An Garda Síochána in 2016 meant the Government had to give increases to other public sectors workers too. You get the impression that move still rankles with him.
After all, the Dublin Central TD was given the position of Minister for Public Expenditure by Enda Kenny due to his firm handling of unions while he was Minister for Transport. The Garda pay settlement, it was suggested around Merrion Street at the time, was dictated from the courtyard of Government Buildings rather than by the departments of Finance or Public Expenditure.
A more powerful figure now, as both Minister for Finance and Public Expenditure, Donohoe perhaps wants to see this dispute through to the end – even if it gets ugly.
Making busy with Brexit
British prime minister Theresa May begins a two-day visit to Northern Ireland today and will make a speech which, judging by early extracts flagged by Downing Street, says little.
After last week's vote in the House of Commons to replace the backstop with "alternative arrangements", May has told her MPs she will attempt to reopen Brexit talks with the EU. In turn, the EU says the Brexit withdrawal agreement cannot be reopened and tries to nudge May toward spelling out the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK.
Once more, May will today commit herself to maintaining an open Irish Border. "We will find a way to deliver Brexit that honours our commitments to Northern Ireland, that commands broad support across the community in Northern Ireland and that secures a majority in the Westminster Parliament, which is the best way to deliver for the people of Northern Ireland," she is expected to say.
May has promised MPs another round of Brexit votes on February 14th, and the EU side is likely to wait and see if the House of Commons can map a credible route forward or decides to veto a no-deal Brexit and extend the Article 50 negotiating period.
The bizarre nature of events in Westminster is best illustrated by the spectacle of a group of Tory MPs discussing with officials a proposal to replace the backstop. The pompously named Malthouse Compromise, named after a junior minister called Kit Malthouse, is essentially a reheat of old Brexiteer solutions already rejected by the EU.
Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy Brexit negotiator, has been enthusiastically highlighting the shortcomings with the Malthouse proposals on Twitter.
As Denis Staunton reports, these seemingly pointless talks are expected to last three days.
A favourable interpretation of this exercise on May’s behalf is that she has made work for a group of hard Brexiteers she will eventually have to disappoint, and who will not be happy with anything short of a crash-out Brexit. A steering group or committee can often be used to busy troublesome hands, but there is the fear that May and some in her own Cabinet believe this plan to be credible.
In an analysis piece, Denis says May and the Brexiteers are engaging in an elaborate game of make-believe.
The coming week on the Brexit front seems set to follow May’s pattern of being busy while not achieving much. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will travel to Brussels tomorrow where it is expected the leaders of the EU institutions will repeat their support for the Irish position, and Tánaiste Simon Coveney travels to the United States.
A week of holding positions, then, all round.
Best Reads
In the latest in our series on housing, Olivia Kelly looks at the Land Development Agency.
Harry McGee and Paul Cullen, with other pieces here and here, have the latest on the children's hospital controversy.
Cliff Taylor examines whether any alternatives to the backstop exist, and Cliff, Paddy Logue and Simon Carswell have the bullshitter's guide to Brexit.
Playbook
The Cabinet holds its weekly meeting, and the agenda is said to be very light.
Dáil
Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business and Questions to the Taoiseach.
Simon Harris will take health questions - sure to be lively today - followed by topical issues.
There are two Government motions: one to approve an agreement between the EU member states on the “Status of Forces and of the Nato Partnership for Peace Status of Forces Agreement, and a second on Ireland’s participation in a European Defence Project on “military search capability building”.
The Greyhound Racing Bill 2018 is at second stage.
Sinn Féin has a PMB on JobPath.
Seanad
Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy will continue with a reply he was giving to senators last week.
The Judicial Appointments Bill will once more resume committee stage, and once more go nowhere due to filibustering.
Committees
Minster for Finance Paschal Donohoe is at the Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform to discuss EU tax policy and Brexit preparations.
Business, Enterprise and Innovation has pre-legislative scrutiny of the general scheme of the Companies (Corporate Enforcement Authority) Bill 2018.
Richard Bruton is at the Communications, Climate Action and Environment Committee to discuss a motion on the ratification of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.
The Budgetary Oversight Committee discusses tax expenditure with Dr Micheál Collins of UCD.
