AMERICA:THROUGHOUT THE long Democratic primary battle with Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama's campaign distinguished itself by remaining calm in the face of each adversity, ignoring hand-wringers and doomsayers in Washington and holding firm to its strategy for victory.
As John McCain takes the lead in national polls and the race narrows in key battleground states, the Obama team insists it is still on course for victory in November but this time, there are unmistakable signs of jitters.
Campaign manager David Plouffe signalled yesterday that Obama was preparing to take the gloves off, launching new attack adverts on McCain and promising to hit back at alleged Republican falsehoods and distortions.
"We will respond with speed and ferocity to John McCain's attacks and we will take the fight to him, but we will do it on the big issues that matter to the American people. We will not allow John McCain and his band of Karl Rove disciples to make this big election about small things," Plouffe said in a campaign memo.
This is not the first time that Obama has promised to get tough and some gloomy Democrats recall that Michael Dukakis and John Kerry were also fond of declaring that they would take the fight to the enemy.
The poll boost Sarah Palin has given McCain has not only energised Republicans who had all but given up hope of victory in November. It has also put Obama's campaign off its game and revived doubts among former Clinton supporters about the Democratic candidate's prospects.
Only a few weeks ago, Democrats were talking about redrawing the electoral map, putting into play such Republican strongholds as North Dakota, Montana, Georgia and North Carolina. Obama has spent almost $2 million on advertising in Georgia, opening 30 offices in the state with more than 100 paid staff.
George Bush won Georgia by 16 points and two polls this week give McCain a lead in the state of between 13 and 18 points.
Obama's attempt to change the electoral college map has not only been costly in financial terms, it helped raise unrealistic expectations among his supporters, some of whom may now be demoralised as he retreats to a more traditional battleground.
Much of the media agrees with Obama that the McCain campaign has been dishonest in some of its attacks, notably the claim that the Democrat's use of the phrase "lipstick on a pig" was a reference to Palin.
Many commentators share Democratic doubts about Palin's credentials to be vice-president and news organisations have invested heavily in combing through her political past in Alaska in search of evidence contradicting her own version of her record.
Unfortunately for Obama, every day spent talking about Palin is a day not focused on the big policy issues of the campaign, such as the economy and healthcare, where Democrats have a popular edge.
Under the direction of Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign appears to revel in taunting Obama and the media with over-the-top attacks and feigned outrage at imagined slights on the Republican candidates.
There are seven weeks left before election day, November 4th, but Obama's window of opportunity to restore the momentum of the race in his favour may be much shorter. His first clear chance will come at the end of this month, when he meets McCain in Mississippi for the first of three presidential debates. Thirty states allow early voting starting on October 15th, so events that happen after that may come too late to affect close contests in the battleground states.
Obama will be further handicapped by the need to leave the campaign trail at regular intervals to attend fundraisers in such Democratic strongholds as New York and Los Angeles.
McCain, who accepted $84 million in public campaign financing, can spend all his time campaigning in the states that are in play, especially the four big battlegrounds of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Despite the wobbles of recent weeks, Obama's campaign remains better funded, better organised and closer to the mainstream of public opinion than McCain's. Palin could yet become the liability many political commentators predicted and a few more weeks of McCain's rough tactics could alienate Independent voters.
As the presidential contest enters the final stretch, however, few Democrats would claim that the race is where they want it to be. Moreover, Republicans are daring to hope that a 72-year-old war veteran and an unknown hockey mom from Alaska just might pull off the biggest political upset the United States has experienced for decades.
