The third report from the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), due out towards the end of this month or in early November, is likely to point to a significant reduction in IRA activity.
Based on police statistics and observations from well-placed sources, the report should lend weight to the view of the Irish and British governments that the IRA is in a position to decommission and cease activity.
The DUP has made clear that such an IMC report on its own would not persuade it to enter into a Northern executive with Sinn Féin. Nonetheless, Dublin and London believe a positive report would assist in the attempts to restore devolution.
Statistics from the PSNI reveal that while loyalist paramilitary "punishment" attacks remained at a consistently high level over this year and last, there was a notable downward trend in the number of republican attacks over the same period.
Up to the end of August this year, loyalists were responsible for 118 attacks, while republicans carried out 47.
What is particularly significant here is that the 47 republican "punishment" shootings and beatings compares with 74 such republican attacks over the same period in 2003.
Up to August this year, republicans carried out 26 assaults, two less than last year, and 21 "punishment" shootings, 25 less than last year.
Moreover, not all these republican attacks were the work of the IRA as the INLA and, it is understood, dissident republicans were also involved in such incidents.
Recent comments from the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, may also serve to substantiate the evidence of reduced IRA activity. Last month he said a pattern of criminal activity by the IRA in the Republic, which he complained about earlier in the year, had ended.
The PSNI chief constable, Mr Hugh Orde, also recently acknowledged that IRA "punishment" attacks were decreasing, but he made no reference to any drop in other IRA activity in the North.
It also emerged last night that 27 police stations are to be substantially de-fortified, possibly including Castlereagh station in Belfast and Strand Road in Derry.
SDLP Policing Board member Mr Alex Attwood said this was the further implementation of the Patten police reform proposals.
Meanwhile, senior Irish and British officials are continuing their efforts to bridge the gap between the DUP and the pro-Belfast Agreement parties on the procedural elements of the agreement's institutions, such as ministerial accountability, which are preventing the finalisation of a deal.
The governments are still planning to publish this month a paper on how the deadlock can be broken, according to informed sources.
