Prof Mary McAleese is heading for a comfortable victory in tomorrow's presidential election, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. Her first preference vote, 37 per cent, is holding firm over the past five days, while her nearest rival, Ms Mary Banotti, has dropped five percentage points to 24 per cent. Dana (Rosemary Scallon), with 8 per cent, has passed out Ms Adi Roche, on 7 per cent, and moved into third position for the first time in the campaign.
Prof McAleese's unassailable position is demonstrated by the finding that she continues to draw a higher total of transfers than Ms Banotti from the three lowest candidates.
The first preference vote for the five candidates in the poll, conducted last Monday, is: Prof McAleese 37 per cent, unchanged over five days; Ms Banotti 24 per cent, down five points; Dana 8 per cent, unchanged; Ms Roche 7 per cent, down one point; Mr Derek Nally 4 per cent, down two points. The level of undecided voters has increased again by seven points to 20 per cent.
Ms Banotti, Ms Roche and Mr Nally have lost support from voters who have switched to undecided in the last five days, while Prof McAleese and Dana have consolidated their positions.
The rating of the candidates, excluding the undecided, is: Prof McAleese 46 per cent, up four points; Ms Banotti 30 per cent, down three points; Dana 10 per cent, up one point; Ms Roche 8 per cent, down one point; Mr Nally 5 per cent, down one point.
Based on these results, Prof McAleese is unbeatable. She would be elected on the third count, following the elimination of Mr Nally and Ms Roche. She then records 52 per cent to Ms Banotti's 35 per cent.
If the actual results are in keeping with this poll, however, the presidential returning officer is obliged, under the 1993 Presidential Elections Act, to eliminate the lowest three candidates together since the sum of their votes would be less than the vote of the fourth candidate, Ms Banotti. In these circumstances, Prof McAleese could be elected on the second count on Friday.
This last poll of the presidential campaign was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies last Monday, October 27th. The previous Irish Times/MRBI poll was conducted five days earlier, on Wednesday, October 22nd.
The findings show that Ms Banotti, an MEP for Dublin, has regained her poll position in Dublin. Both she and Prof McAleese, however, have lost votes in the capital. Ms Banotti's current support in Dublin is 30 per cent, down four points in five days, compared to Prof McAleese's 29 per cent, down eight points.
Prof McAleese how commands more support among the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups - 52 per cent in each - than the combined totals of the four other candidates.
Some 61 per cent of Fianna Fail voters now support Prof McAleese, an increase of three points. Ms Banotti gets support from 59 per cent of Fine Gael voters, down two points. Ms Roche commands the support of 22 per cent of Labour voters, down six points.
About one-third of voters, 32 per cent, say they made their minds up around the start of the campaign; a further 21 per cent made their minds up two or three weeks ago; 28 per cent made their minds up within the last week; some 19 per cent are still undecided.
Excluding the undecided, the current state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 51 per cent, unchanged over five days; Fine Gael 24 per cent, down three points; Labour 11 per cent, up one point; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, up one point; Democratic Left 2 per cent, up one point; Green Party 2 per cent, down one point; Sinn Fein 2 per cent, unchanged; Workers' Party 1 per cent, unchanged; and Others 4 per cent, up two points.
The level of satisfaction with the Government is 56 per cent, up one point.
